Ohio State vs. Texas prediction: College football Week 2 picks, odds, best bet for Saturday’s marquee showdown

Texas’ loss to Ohio State in Week 1 of last season really set the tone for the season in Austin.

There’s no shame in losing to the Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium, but the manner of defeat was concerning.

Arch Manning’s Longhorns could only muster seven points against Ohio State, and the flat performance seemed to derail any momentum that the program had going into the campaign.

Eventually, Manning got on track, but by the time he did it was too little too late.

Just over a year later, Manning will try to make amends and get revenge on the Buckeyes at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday night.

The Longhorns are 1.5-point favorites for the biggest game in Week 2.

Ohio State vs. Texas pick

There is a reason oddsmakers are suggesting you just flip a coin for this matchup: This game is quite a tricky puzzle to solve.

On paper, the matchup should favor Texas.

The Longhorns are at home, and they’ll be getting a crack at an Ohio State defense that lost five players to the first two rounds of the NFL Draft.

The Buckeyes have turned reloading into an art form in this era of college football, but it’s fair to wonder if Matt Patricia’s new-look defense will be up to speed for this kind of matchup at this juncture of the season.

Plus, this shouldn’t be the same tepid offense that the Buckeyes saw in Week 1 last year.

Manning came alive in the second half of 2025, and Steve Sarkisian surrounded him with NFL-caliber players at every level.

Sarkisian shipped in Raleek Brown (Arizona State) and Hollywood Smothers (NC State) to solidify the run game and alleviate some of the pressure on Manning, and he brought in wide receiver Cam Coleman (Auburn), who is projected to be a top-10 pick this spring.

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If Manning isn’t dealing with the ghosts of his dreadful performance against Ohio State in 2025, the Longhorns offense should be able to make hay, and I have my doubts that the Buckeyes will be able to keep up.

While quarterback Julian Sayin proved he could be a picture of efficiency in 2025, the Buckeyes fell short when it came time to raise the stakes.

Sayin’s got plenty of future NFLers to lean on, but the conservative nature of the Buckeyes’ play-calling last year gives me pause. If Texas is going to be able to move the ball Saturday, Ohio State will need to adjust their approach to keep up.

They weren’t able to do that in the business end of 2025, and I have my doubts they’ll be able to in a hostile environment Saturday.

The Play: Texas moneyline (-120, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.