NFL Week 9 predictions, best bets: Picks against the spread for every game

Welcome to Season 33, Episode 9 of NFL picks on The Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide channel. We’ll call this one “So Even, It’s Odd.”

Though 121 games and 24 Best Bets, your fearless forecaster is dead even — 59-59-3 overall and 12-12.

It’s reminiscent of Seinfeld, Season 5, Episode 22: “The Opposite.” That’s the one where instead of his normal tuna on toast, George orders chicken salad on rye (untoasted), with a side of potato salad and a cup of tea and winds up getting a job with the Yankees. Earlier on, Jerry discovers, after breaking even in a poker game, that everything in his life evens out — one friend is up, one is down … Elaine throws his $20 bill out the window, he immediately finds another one in his pocket.

That’s what this NFL season’s been like, with some sure wins turning into losses in the last minute and a similar helping of late luck. Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are,” to which I reply: “Good for the Tuna.”

Anyway, onward we go in our quest to get above sea level.

New York Giants (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Though this spread might look small considering the plight of the Eagles, it’s actually quite a large move for the Giants. The last time we saw them, they were 10.5-point underdogs at Houston against a team that was 2-4 at the time. The oddsmakers clearly were not swayed by the Giants’ last-play wins over the Titans and Cardinals, nor their miracle tie against the Commanders. This is only the third time Big Blue has been favored, the largest number yet, and the first time on the road.

Still, there are two factors pushing a Giants play here. One is the state of the Eagles. They have lost six in a row, four of those by at least 11 points. Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are both hurt and missed Wednesday’s practice. They’re starting Joe Milton at quarterback (though he might be an upgrade from what we’ve seen from Tanner McKee).

The other angle is that the Giants come in off a bye. In Baltimore, John Harbaugh was 15-3 straight up and 10-8 ATS in his post-bye games. This season, teams are 26-10-1 with at least a three-day rest advantage over their opponents (generated by byes and Thursday games).

Harbaugh’s coaching has been the Giants’ superpower this season. I expect we’ll see some new wrinkles and improvement in areas where they’ve been lacking after the break, and the Eagles can’t get to their bye next week fast enough.

New York Jets (+9.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

In their past three games, the Chiefs are averaging 16.3 ppg., so it seems kinda dicey to lay a double-digit spread when their offense isn’t clicking. Aaron Glenn’s defense has been a disaster, so maybe this is the day Patrick Mahomes hangs 40, but the Jets can score too. Geno Smith leads Mahomes in passing yards and passer rating, and they’re even with 12 touchdown passes. Even without Garrett Wilson, the Jets have three others who have posted 100-yard receiving games in Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr. (twice), and Adonai Mitchell.

Falcons (+3) over Bengals

The morning game from Madrid pits two teams that worry me after last week’s performances. The Bengals gave up 36 points to a Titans team that had been averaging 14.5. The Falcons lost 16-0 to the Buccaneers, who didn’t complete a single pass, although that game was played through some biblical rain. Tough call, but the lean is to Atlanta, which beat the 49ers just two weeks ago and is usually a live bet as an underdog.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+2.5) over Denver Broncos

The Panthers are one of the teams with the rest advantage, having played last Thursday, while Denver makes the long haul east for an early start. Carolina has a new defensive coordinator, and this could give the normally slow-starting Broncos extra problems. Chuba Hubbard and Tetairoa McMillan could pull a home surprise here.

Detroit Lions (-7) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Treading a bit lightly here because the Dolphins have covered three of their past four, and the failure was by a half-point to the spread. Still, this is a team that’s topped the 20-point mark just twice all season. The Lions were held to 20 and 19 by the Packers and Vikings, respectively, in two physical wins, but the last time they faced a doormat, they scored 45 at Arizona.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Cleveland Browns

I’m not scared off by Shedeur Sanders starting for the Browns in place of Deshaun Watson. That might be an improvement for Todd Monken. This is more of a pro-Saints pick. They’re in that extra-rest trend, and in their time off they are getting back LT Kelvin Banks and possibly WR Jordyn Tyson. Keep an eye on the game-time scratches.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+5.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Was the Colts’ 42-7 destruction by the Jaguars a sign of them giving up before tanking? I’m not so sure. The Cowboys come in with a defense that was a crime against humanity in the second half vs. Arizona, and Caleb Downs is expected to be out. Looking for Shane Steichen to feed Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs to increase their trade value.

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Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

This spread dipped 1.5 points in the past few days, and now it’s low enough where I want to put trust in Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and the Rams. They’re 4-4, and if they’re going to avoid being odds-on colossal busts, they have to get on a serious roll right now.

Houston Texans (-5.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Jim Harbaugh’s mess is 0-7 both straight up and ATS. Are the Chargers bound to at least cover a spread? That’s what I was hoping for last week. Now I just see a Swiss cheese offensive line trying to keep Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter off shell-shocked Justin Herbert.

Green Bay Packers (+3) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Patriots had early marquee wins against the Steelers and Bills, but the past three victories have come against the Raiders, Jets and Dolphins, and they went 1-2 ATS against them. The Packers are good enough for this spread to play a role in the betting outcome.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Arizona Cardinals

This line dropped from -11 on the news that Drew Lock will replace an injured Sam Darnold. I’m here to grab the line value on Lock, who has already beaten the Cardinals (31-7) and Patriots and is completing 72.9 percent of his passes with four TDs and zero INTs. It’s also desperation time for the 4-4 Seahawks.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-10) over Las Vegas Raiders

The Niners are coming off the bye after Kyle Shanahan sat on his couch and watched Geno Smith carve up the Raiders defense to the tune of 422 total yards. The Raiders have some dangerous offensive players, but this sets up like their 45-17 loss in New England a month ago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) over CHICAGO BEARS

The Bears are on a short week after a rousing road win Monday night, making this a classic letdown spot. The Bucs come in with a meat-grinder running game featuring Bucky Irving and a defense that has not given up 20 points in regulation time since Week 3. Prepare for a war.

Monday

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The hook worries me here, but I’m fine with the matchup of Josh Allen vs. Brian Flores. In six meetings, Allen is 6-0 and has completed 64.4 percent of his passes with 16 TDs and two INTs vs. Flores’ defenses. He also has rushed for 200 yards and two TDs.

Best bets: Seahawks, Colts, Buccaneers.

Lock of the week: Seahawks (Locks 3-5 in 2026).

Last week: 8-6 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.

Thursday: Jaguars (W).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.