UNC vs. TCU prediction, odds: Bill Belichick shocks college football world in Week 0

· New York Post

Bill Belichick’s first year at North Carolina was such a mess that it’s no surprise that the Tar Heels have already been written off in 2026.

The bandwagon in Chapel Hill has completely emptied, and that means one thing: It’s time to bet on UNC.

Looking back on last year, it should have been obvious that the Tar Heels were going to fall flat.

There were plenty of distractions, a shambolic plan and the roster was just not that good. It seemed like the glass-half-full approach was that Belichick would sort it out. Nope.

This year, UNC seems to have a better plan than that.

Bobby Petrino will run an offense led by steady veteran quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., and the Tar Heels’ portal haul looks very Belichickian with three tight ends and a pass-catcher from a Patriot League school.

TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball. AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith

One thing that won’t change is that Steve Belichick will run the defense. That’s a good thing, as the Tar Heels were solid in that department last season, ranking 36th in SP+.

While change is a good thing for UNC, the opposite feels true for Sonny Dykes and TCU.

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Dykes has done admirable work with the Horned Frogs, but he’ll have his hands full to keep this ship steady. Quarterback Josh Hoover bolted for Indiana, three of TCU’s four top pass-catchers from 2025 are also gone and the offensive line features a ton of new faces.

Jaden Craig, a graduate student from Harvard, will take over under center, and while his numbers in the Ivy League were strong, we’ve got no idea what to expect at the FBS level.

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There are just as many questions for TCU to solve on defense, too.

I get why nobody wants to back UNC, but there are so many variables in this contest, which is being played in Ireland, that this line seems way too wide.

Back the Tar Heels to cover and don’t be afraid to nibble on the moneyline, too.

THE PLAY: UNC +9.5 (-117, DraftKings) | UNC moneyline (+280, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.