Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton prediction: US Open men’s Final picks, best bet, odds Sunday

Ben Shelton is one win away from becoming the first American man to win the U.S. Open since Andy Roddick in 2003, but he’ll have to upset the odds to do it.

The 23-year-old dropped the first set to compatriot Frances Tiafoe in Friday night’s semifinal, but he took over the match from there, continuing a blistering run of form.

He’ll need to carry that momentum into Sunday’s final with Alexander Zverev, as the World No. 2 hasn’t dropped a set since the second round.

Zverev is a -150 favorite to lift the trophy.

Shelton vs. Zverev U.S. Open Final odds, pick

We can spend a lot of time going into the tale of the tape and the X’s and O’s for Sunday’s Men’s U.S. Open Final between Zverev and Shelton, but really the most important question has nothing to do with serves, backhands and/or fatigue.

Instead, it comes down to one crucial question: Will Zverev be able to keep his wits against not only his opponent, but in front of a rabid crowd that wants to see an American man win the U.S. Open for the first time since Andy Roddick in 2003?

I have my doubts that the German will do that.

Zverev did get the monkey off his back with his maiden Grand Slam title at the French Open, but this will be a whole different beast for a player who has a habit of coming unglued.

Countless times we’ve seen the World No. 2 snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the business end of major tournaments.

It’s also worth noting that Zverev has barely been tested during his fortnight in the Big Apple.

Shelton will be the first top-20 opponent he’s faced in the U.S. Open, and four of his six first matches, including the quarters and semifinals, featured an unranked foe.

Shelton, on the other hand, had to run a gauntlet to get to his first-ever final.

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In addition to an epic win over Carlos Alcaraz, Shelton defeated Tiafoe, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz, all of whom were at one time ranked inside the top 20.

Shelton has plenty of game to beat Zverev in a vacuum, but this match is not being played in one. It will be played in front of what figures to be the most raucous tennis crowd we’ve seen in a generation.

Shelton has heaps of value Sunday afternoon.

The Play: Shelton moneyline (+123, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.