Some of the midterm numbers are bonkers — here’s how Democrats won

In a night chock-full of big stories, a few stand out.

In Texas, Democrat Leticia Gutierrez, a lobbyist and former city council aide, upset Republican Alex Mealer by almost 16 points in a district that voted for President Donald Trump by almost 20 points in 2024.

In a district in the Rio Grande Valley, Democrat Bobby Pulido beat Rep. Monica de la Cruz by 25 points in a district that Trump had won by 18 just two years ago.

In North Carolina Richard Ojeda, who famously ran for (and lost) a district in southern West Virginia a few years back, won a district Trump had won by 16.

LaKesha Womack, a business consultant who raised less than $50,000, defeated GOP Rep. Tim Moore in a district that he had specifically drawn for himself.

Perhaps most notoriously, in Tennessee’s 4th District, Rep. Scott DesJarlais lost to Victoria Broderick, a “customer support specialist” who lost to DesJarlais four years ago by 40 points — in a district Trump had won by well over 30 points.

How does this happen? In the past, even the worst wave elections have rarely flooded into seats that the other party’s nominee won by double digits in the preceding presidential election.

In the Senate, only a handful of such seats have flipped since 2000.

Last night? Democrats won between five and seven such seats in states Republicans had won by double digits.

Several factors contributed.

First, Republican turnout was down.

According to exit polls, the electorate was about three points more Democratic than it was Republican; in 2024, it was about four points more Republican than Democrat.

Because Republicans vote almost unanimously for Republicans and vice versa, this shift put Republicans in a hole to begin with.

At this point, we can only assume why these voters stayed home, but disappointment with the Trump administration surely played a crucial role.

Donald Trump was elected on a promise to bring prices down “starting on day one.” Trump’s tariff policies did the opposite.

The inability of the administration to persuade Republicans to make the DOGE cuts permanent, or to pass the “SAVE America Act,” made it look ineffective, regardless of the actual merits of those policies.

Second, Republicans got blown out among Independents, losing this group by 20 points — and when we drill down to “pure independents,” the Democratic lead grows to 26 points.

It’s very difficult to win an election in America when Independents cast their lots this strongly with a single party.

This is also probably where the Iran war hurt Trump the most.

Independents naturally care much less about partisan issues than strong Republicans and Democrats do — but the deeply unpopular war (opposed by two-thirds of the electorate) spiked gas prices in an election year and contributed to a general rise in prices.

It also broke another core Trump campaign promise to avoid wars in the Middle East.

Finally, the general sense of chaos surrounding this administration contributed to a sense that it is incompetent and corrupt.

Third, Trump policies broke off key parts of the Republican coalition he had added in 2024.

Black voters swung back to single-digit support for Republicans.

Hispanic voter support for Republicans dropped by double digits, at least partly in response to ICE raids.

And young voters, who feel the brunt of increased prices as they try to start out their lives, swung from supporting Harris by 11 points to voting for Democrats by almost 50.

Fourth, we should consider the effect of the Republican re-redistricting efforts.

Republicans redrew the lines in several states, including Tennessee, North Carolina, Texas, Missouri, Alabama and Florida — and the GOP suffered a net loss of seats in these states.

While the story is more complicated than it first appears, it probably didn’t help these incumbents to face different voters than they were used to in an unfavorable election cycle.

The dismantling of black-majority districts created by the Voting Rights Act helped boost black turnout in other redrawn districts.

Overall, it was a perfect storm for the GOP.

The only good news for them is that the Founders set up a republic where elections are held every two years.

This will give Republicans a chance to regroup and make their case to the American people . . . if they can get their act together.

Sean Trende is the senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics.