Lions vs. Bills prediction: Expect a scoring bonanza on ‘Thursday Night Football’

With 60,000 members of Bills Mafia christening a brand-new stadium on primetime, you’d think that would be enough of a spectacle. 

The impending fireworks between the Bills and Lions add a whole different dimension of appointment viewing.  

Detroit and Buffalo have cemented their reputations as two of the NFL’s highest-powered offenses in recent years, ranking No. 1 and No. 2 in points per game over the last 50 regular-season games, at 29.7 and 28.8, respectively.

Last week, they scored a collective 67 points.

Lions vs. Bills prediction, best bet

The Bills secured a 36-31 win over the Texans in a back-and-forth thriller that featured eight lead changes. Josh Allen’s remarkable efforts amounted to 357 total yards and four total scores against an elite Houston defense. A 34-yard touchdown strike to Joshua Palmer with 1:36 remaining is the exact kind of high-wire football the Bills have patented.

Detroit also came way too close for comfort against a seemingly inferior Saints team. The Lions threw away a 21-point lead in the second half before New Orleans’ missed two-point conversion in overtime handed a 31-30 decision to Detroit.

The premier talents of Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown produced as expected, with each catching a pair of touchdowns.

The last meeting between these two resulted in a 48-42 points parade won by the Bills in December 2024. More of the same is expected here, with an stratospheric point total that’s crept to 54.5.

As intimidating as this number is, 53 percent of DraftKings bettors are taking the Over, and there’s good reason to agree with them. 

The Bills made a concerted effort to address their leaky run defense in the offseason. They hired Jim Leonhard from Denver and moved to a 3-4 scheme to scrap their conservative tendencies from the prior regime.

It made for a whole lot of nothing last week: Houston gained 124 yards on the ground while David Montgomery pounded the ball into the end zone twice. 

Now comes Gibbs, who consistently beat the Saints’ front seven to the second level before initial contact, picking right up where he left off last season with a career-high 34 touches for 156 yards and two scores. 

If C.J. Stroud connected for 274 yards against Buffalo’s secondary, Jared Goff and St. Brown are due for an explosive play or two. 

Using that same logic, it’s scary to think what Allen will muster against a banged-up secondary that allowed 410 passing yards to a callow Tyler Shough. Allen completed five passes for at least 30 yards last week and spread the ball around while he was at it as Dalton Kincaid and DJ Moore combined for 230 yards. 

Betting on the NFL?

• Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
• Check out the best NFL betting sites
• Get the BetMGM Bonus Code

Allen’s elite dual-threat abilities make defending the Bills unpredictable — especially against a Lions defense that is -0.03 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. If the pass isn’t there, he’ll pivot to making the play himself. The former MVP ran for 68 yards in the last meeting and is fresh off a two-score performance with his legs. 

The talent is on the field, and the explosive plays are sure to come, so don’t be afraid to climb the beanstalk and bet the Over. 

THE PLAY: Over 54.5 (51 percent, Kalshi)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.