Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi prediction: French Open odds, picks, best bets

Frances Tiafoe has the opportunity of a lifetime ahead of him.

The American is into the Round of 16 at the French Open, and he won’t face a seeded player until at least the semifinal. With Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic all out of the picture, a Grand Slam is within Tiafoe’s grasp.

Tiafoe, last seen coming from a 2-0 deficit against Jaime Faria in a four-hour thriller, is a -124 to beat Matteo Arnaldi at Roland Garros on Monday morning.

French Open: Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi odds, prediction

The two most memorable features of this iteration of the French Open are the upsets and the heat. When Sinner exited at the hands of Juan Manuel Cerundolo, it blew open the men’s side of the draw, and all of a sudden, pressure rose on players like Tiafoe as they were presented with the best chance of their careers to win a Grand Slam.

Tiafoe has answered the bell so far.

The Maryland native has long been known for his ability to raise his level in the business end of best-of-5 matches, but he’s taken things to a new level in the past two matches.

Tiafoe went back and forth with former World No. 6 Hubert Hurkacz in a five-set epic in the second round, and then he one-upped himself by coming from the brink of defeat against Faria in the Round of 32.

This is nothing new for Tiafoe, who has turned himself into a terrific best-of-5 player in his career. He rises to meet the moment.

As for Arnaldi, this is just the second time he’s ever reached this stage of the French Open and the third time he’s played into the fourth round at a Grand Slam. Like Tiafoe, he is coming off a marathon match in the third round.

Arnaldi dispatched Raphael Collingnon in five hours.

Stylistically, the Italian differs from Tiafoe in a number of ways. While Tiafoe is an aggressive player always looking to attack, Arnaldi’s best tools are his speed and his ability to counter-punch. Both players are relentless workers, as evidenced by their 12 hours on court already in this tournament.

The tale of the tape is strength-on-strength, but there is one big edge in the intangibles. While this is getting close to uncharted waters for Arnaldi, Tiafoe has plenty of experience in the deep end of the pool And in a match that is projected as a coin flip, that is enough to give the American the nod.

The Play: Tiafoe moneyline (-124, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.