Liberty vs. Dream WNBA playoff prediction, picks: Breanna Stewart leads live Game 1 underdog

· New York Post

The Liberty and Dream both emerged from their first-round playoff series without much trouble and sit three wins away from the WNBA Finals.

Game 1 of their semifinal matchup will tip off Sunday in Atlanta with the Dream listed as 3.5-point favorites and the Over/Under sitting at 173.5 points.

Liberty vs. Dream Game 1 prediction

The Dream won the season series over the Liberty 2-1 and both wins came in the final two games.

Seeding battles were still at stake for the first of those two games, but the Liberty were playing on the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights.

The Dream took the first game with ease and the Liberty didn’t bother playing Breanna Stewart in the second game to rest her for the playoffs.

That’s important to note as the two teams meet with a spot in the Finals on the line.

The Liberty don’t have to worry about rest this time around after they dismissed the Lynx and became the first No. 8 seed in WNBA to knock off a No. 1 seed.

The fact that the Liberty won both games by double-digits should change how the public views them. They may have been up-and-down this season, but when the lights are brightest they can clearly flip a switch.

Atlanta Dream’s Angel Reese (5) reacts as New York Liberty’s Breanna Stewart (30) looks on during the first half of a game at Barclays Center in the Brooklyn borough of New York City, Monday, Sept. 21, 2026. Getty Images

The Dream didn’t need to flip a switch, they’ve been rolling all season and that continued in their opening round showcase against the Mystics.

Atlanta made its mark on defense, forcing 21 turnovers per game and scoring 25 points off those turnovers.

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We haven’t seen the best version of these two teams in the same game in any of their three previous games, but I think we’ll finally get that in the series opener.

If the Liberty can take care of the ball, they should be able to hang with the Dream.

I’ll bet on the Liberty to keep Game 1 close.

The Pick: Liberty +3.5 (-105, bet365)

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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.