Democrats are poised to blow a winnable midterm | Opinion

Progressives have seized control of primary races across the country and are poised to nominate far-left candidates in several winnable swing-state races, including Michigan and Wisconsin. Democratic primary voters have made clear they want "fighters," not safe establishment picks.

That gamble could pay off. But the likelier outcome is the kind of underwhelming performance Republicans had in 2022.

Democrats head into the November midterm elections with significant structural advantages. The party out of power typically gains ground in a president's second midterm, especially against an administration as unpopular as President Donald Trump's. The economy hasn't delivered the rebound Trump promised, rising fuel prices from the Iran war have been pinned on him, and his immigration crackdown has further energized the Democratic base.

That energy may be getting misdirected. Democratic primary voters are increasingly flocking to democratic socialist or otherwise extremely progressive candidates, wanting "fighters" because they're dissatisfied with how Democratic leaders have, or more precisely, haven't, responded to the second Trump administration.

Democratic socialist wins in New York City and Maine have already been picked apart at length. Now that energy has reached the Midwest.

Democrats support radical candidates in Wisconsin, Michigan primaries

In Wisconsin, Democratic voters are poised to nominate Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, for governor. Though the field remains crowded, Hong holds a 22-point lead over her opponents, helped along by the rivals' own missteps, including campaign finance troubles.

Hong's platform, built around strict anti-data-center policy and universal free childcare, plays well in blue-stronghold Madison, but she still trails Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany statewide.

Establishment Democrats are scrambling to find an alternative just weeks before Wisconsin's primary, worried Hong will struggle in a general election. But so far they haven't been able to unite behind a single rival.

The threat isn't confined to governorships. It extends to Democrats' legislative majorities: Seven candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America have already won U.S. House primaries, with 11 more races still pending, according to the Washington Examiner.

In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed is causing similar headaches for the Democratic Party. El-Sayed declines the socialist label, but he has the backing of the movement's loudest voices (Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, and Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York), and his platform follows theirs closely: universal health care, higher taxes on the wealthy and a willingness to abolish the filibuster to get there.

Polls show El-Sayed leading the primary, even though his opponent, U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, is widely viewed by establishment Democrats and election forecasters alike as the safer bet for the general election.

Even former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate nominee, has said that he'd rather face El-Sayed – with good reason: Rodgers holds a double-digit lead over the Democrat head-to-head, while Stevens holds Rogers to a tie.

Publicly, establishment Democrats have stayed quiet about their preference, wary of damaging the eventual nominee's standing before November. But U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly favors Stevens, and outside groups have poured a massive amount of money into stopping El-Sayed.

Democrats could be in store for an underperformance in November

Democratic voters are increasingly willing to bet on these candidates, but the gamble looks shaky. The traits that win primaries tend to be liabilities in general elections.

These candidates need to stake out positions well outside their party's mainstream just to stand out in crowded primary fields. These positions play far worse with the swing voters who actually decide these races, and risk depressing turnout among moderate Democrats come fall.

Democrats' willingness to entertain these candidates could produce the same letdown Republicans suffered in the 2022 midterm elections. With then-President Joe Biden's approval hovering around 40% and the economy struggling, Trump handpicked extreme, often unpalatable candidates over the objections of establishment Republicans.

Those candidates energized the party's base but alienated moderate Republicans. Herschel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania all lost races the GOP should have won. More than half of Trump-endorsed candidates lost that cycle, many in swing states Republicans needed.

What should have been a comfortable Republican year ended in a smaller-than-expected House majority and a Senate that stayed in Democratic hands.

Progressives are courting the same outcome with their push for democratic socialists and other sharply progressive nominees. If Democrats let a winnable House and Senate slip away over ideological purity, they'll only have their own primary voters to blame.

Dace Potas is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY and a graduate of DePaul University with a degree in political science.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Democrats are poised to blow a winnable midterm | Opinion

Reporting by Dace Potas, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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This story was originally published August 3, 2026 at 1:03 AM.