1-loss BYU plummets to No. 14 in latest College Football Playoff rankings

Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes

PROVO — The question of BYU's College Football Playoff fate if the Cougars assumed a loss in the regular season has an answer.

And that answer is? Not good.

BYU plummeted eight spots to No. 14 in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, the selection committee announced Tuesday, to earn a No. 12 seed in the latest mock proposal.

The Cougars (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) are one spot behind 9-1 SMU — the only team to beat Mustangs, albeit in Week 2 of the regular season, and two spots behind presumed Mountain West champion Boise State (9-1), which clinched one of four first-round byes reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions.

That means the Cougars aren't just in danger of missing the CFP for themselves, but any chance of the Big 12 receiving an at-large bid to the 12-team playoff seems all-but obsolete after BYU became the final league team to lose its undefeated season with a 17-13 loss to Kansas.

The current projection rates BYU as the projected Big 12 champion, the fifth-highest ranked conference champion at the moment by the committee. Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), Miami (ACC) and Boise State (Mountain West) would earn first-round byes under the most recent rankings.

CFP selection committee chair Warde Manuel acknowledged on a conference call with reporters Tuesday night that the Cougars' "tough loss at home" following several close wins, particularly against SMU, Utah and Oklahoma State — combined with "a great win against Kansas State" — led to BYU's ultimately precipitous drop in the rankings.

"t was just something the committee had been monitoring all along," said Manuel, who is also the athletic director at Michigan. "Look, we give a lot of credit when teams win, and so we don't penalize teams for winning close or winning too big ... but we do value wins, so that's where we saw BYU. But given some of those games that they played and the close wins that they had, it just was an indicator that some of the teams that were below them in the rankings last week should move ahead of them is how the committee assessed BYU."

As for Boise State, Manuel cited the Broncos' 37-34 road loss to top-ranked Oregon while praising the current Mountain West frontrunner's current 9-1 record that includes a 6-0 mark in conference play.

"It started with a close loss at Oregon by 3, and they've performed very well in their games and the competitions they've had since," Manuel said. "For us, you look at what Ashton Jeanty has done, leading the country in rushing; they really have been a great, solid team in their performance and the committee has been impressed by how they've played all year."

The drop below Boise State means BYU would be slated to travel to fifth-seeded Ohio State — the committee's overall No. 2-ranked team — in the first round, with the winner facing the Broncos at a neutral site.

But simply making the field has taken a hit. Not only did the Cougars drop in the rankings, but Colorado (8-2, 6-1 Big 12) rose to No. 16 as well. BYU's chances of making the playoffs dropped 20 percentage points to 39% by ESPN's playoff predictor after Saturday night's loss ot the Jayhawks, just 3% better than 16th-ranked Colorado.

Rated among the first four teams outside of the bracket, the Buffaloes have a 70.3% chance of making the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN.

The Cougars and Buffaloes don't face each other in the regular season, so any meeting would have to be decided in the Big 12 championship Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. If BYU beats Arizona State this week and Utah beats Iowa State, the Cougars would clinch a berth in that game.

Of course, if the Sun Devils (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) win this weekend, they would dramatically improve their odds at a conference title game appearance for the team picked to finish 16th in the Big 12 preseason media poll in July that debuted in the CFP rankings at No. 21, one spot ahead of Iowa State.

"We just felt that Arizona State is playing at a high level right now," said Manuel of the Sun Devils, while acknowledging that ASU's 24-14 loss to Cincinnati without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt was part of the discussion, "and that's how we saw them breaking in for the first time and being ranked in the top 25."

Either way, the message is clear for BYU: Just win, especially this week. It's the lesson adopted by several teams across the country as jockeying continues for the final spots in the first-ever 12-team playoff.

"We're excited to be in contention late in November. I know the committee has a tough job; I get to rank the coaches' poll every week, and when you get to those last 15, it's really tough," SMU coach Rhett Lashlee told ESPN. "We're in a position where, if we just keep winning, I think we're going to be OK. And that's the end of the day what we have to do: We've gotta win. And if we don't win, then we don't deserve to be in. But if we do win these next few weeks, I think we deserve to be in."

College Football Playoff rankings

Week 3 — Nov. 16, 2024

1. Oregon (11-0)
2. Ohio State (9-1)
3. Texas (9-1)
4. Penn State (9-1)
5. Indiana (10-0)
6. Notre Dame (9-1)
7. Alabama (8-2)
8. Miami (9-1)
9. Ole Miss (8-2)
10. Georgia (8-2)
11. Tennessee (8-2)
12. Boise State (9-1)
13. SMU (9-1)
14. BYU (9-1)
15. Texas A&M (8-2)
16. Colorado (8-2)
17. Clemson (8-2)
18. South Carolina (7-3)
19. Army (9-0)
20. Tulane (9-2)
21. Arizona State (8-2)
22. Iowa State (8-2)
23. Missouri (7-3)
24. UNLV (8-2)
25. Illinois (7-3)

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Sean Walker

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KSL.com BYU and college sports reporter