China's birth crisis threatens Xi's superpower dream
· UPIAug. 2 (Asia Today) -- The "Chinese Dream" has become one of the most familiar political slogans among China's younger generations, many of whom have grown increasingly nationalistic in recent years.
Comparable in name to the American Dream, the phrase embodies the hope that China will reclaim its place at the center of the world and eventually surpass the United States as the leading global power.
Chinese President Xi Jinping popularized the term shortly after becoming general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in November 2012.
During a visit to an exhibition titled "The Road to Rejuvenation" at the National Museum of China, Xi described the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation as the country's greatest modern dream.
He has repeatedly used the phrase since then, turning it into one of the defining slogans of his leadership.
The concept gained further public attention in 2013 when well-known Chinese singer and actress Chen Sisi released a patriotic song about the Chinese Dream.
The expression has since become firmly established in Chinese political and popular culture. It is widely used in schools, official campaigns and social media posts across the country.
Given China's current economic, military and diplomatic standing, Xi's vision cannot simply be dismissed as an unattainable fantasy.
China possesses the world's second-largest economy and remains the only country widely viewed as having the economic scale necessary to challenge the United States.
Washington has imposed tariffs, export controls and other restrictions in an effort to limit China's advancement in fields including semiconductors, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing.
Despite those pressures, some forecasts suggest China could eventually overtake the United States in overall economic output, although the timing and likelihood remain disputed.
China's military is also far removed from the poorly equipped force it once was.
The country has three aircraft carriers and appears to be preparing for additional carrier development. Its expanding nuclear arsenal is also expected to reach about 1,000 operational warheads by 2030, according to U.S. government assessments.
Guo Qingping, a Beijing-based military commentator, said Russia's performance in the war in Ukraine had exposed limitations in Moscow's military power.
Guo argued that China had become the only country capable of mounting a serious military challenge to the United States.
China has also tried to expand its diplomatic influence through infrastructure investment, development programs and deeper relations with countries across Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East.
Some observers argue that unpredictable U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump has given Beijing additional opportunities to present itself as a more stable international partner.
Xi is well aware of China's growing influence and appears determined to secure his place alongside Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping as one of the most consequential leaders in the history of the People's Republic.
His continued consolidation of power has made extended rule increasingly likely.
Xi's determination is particularly apparent in his approach to Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of its territory despite never having governed the democratically administered island.
Rumors have circulated among diplomatic and military observers in Beijing that Xi wants the People's Liberation Army to possess the capability to take Taiwan by 2027, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese military.
The date should not necessarily be interpreted as a confirmed deadline for an invasion. U.S. officials have generally described it as a military capability target rather than evidence that Beijing has decided to launch an attack that year.
Xi's sweeping anti-corruption campaign also reflects his effort to reinforce control over the party, government and armed forces.
The campaign has reached senior officials once considered politically untouchable, along with their associates and family members.
Chinese authorities announced in January that Zhang Youxia, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and one of Xi's most senior military allies, was under investigation for suspected serious violations of discipline and law.
The investigation demonstrated that even officials with long personal or family ties to Xi were not necessarily beyond the reach of his military purge.
These developments suggest that Xi's Chinese Dream does not exist solely in the realm of political rhetoric. China has accumulated considerable economic, technological and military power with which to pursue it.
Yet the obstacles confronting that dream are also growing.
The most consequential may be China's declining birthrate.
Only 7.92 million babies were born in China in 2025, an extraordinarily low figure for a country with a population of about 1.4 billion.
The number of births was only slightly more than half the 12.7 million students expected to graduate from Chinese universities in 2026.
The demographic consequences are already becoming visible.
More than 50,000 kindergartens, elementary schools and secondary schools have reportedly closed in recent years as the number of children has fallen.
Those closures represent only the most immediate effects of a broader demographic shift that could shrink the labor force, weaken domestic consumption and place heavier pressure on pensions, healthcare systems and younger workers.
A rapidly aging population could also reduce China's long-term economic growth and undermine the resources available for military expansion, technological development and international influence.
China's younger generation faces additional pressures.
Many young people are struggling with unemployment, high housing costs and intense competition for a limited number of desirable jobs.
Expressions such as "lying flat" have reflected growing frustration among younger Chinese who no longer believe that relentless work will necessarily lead to financial security or upward mobility.
Artificial intelligence presents another challenge.
China regards the technology as essential to its competition with the United States and is investing heavily in its development. At the same time, automation could eliminate or transform many jobs at a moment when university graduates are already struggling to find employment.
China's ambition to become the world's leading power is not inherently unreasonable. Nor is the Chinese Dream necessarily a harmful national aspiration.
The danger lies in pursuing geopolitical prestige while overlooking the domestic foundations required to sustain it.
A country cannot maintain long-term national power through aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons, advanced technology and patriotic slogans alone.
It also needs young workers, confident consumers, stable families and citizens who believe they have a meaningful stake in the future.
An old Chinese expression warns that going too far can be as harmful as not going far enough.
Xi's pursuit of the Chinese Dream may therefore require more than speed, discipline and centralized authority. It may require recognizing that China's greatest threat to becoming the world's leading power could come not from Washington, but from the emptying classrooms and maternity wards within its own borders.
-- Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI
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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260802010000201