France's government warns of 'big storm' as no-confidence vote looms

PARIS — France’s minority government may be on its last legs as opposition lawmakers moved this week toward a no-confidence vote. In a last-ditch effort to save themselves, cabinet members warned of domestic and international turmoil if the government is toppled.

Prime Minister Michel Barnier, a conservative allied with French President Emmanuel Macron's centrists, acknowledged his government’s fragile position over a key budget vote in a television interview on Tuesday. The budget bill for next year must be passed by Dec 21.

If a no-confidence vote passes in parliament thanks to what he called an “alliance” between the left and the far right, “there will be a big storm and very serious turbulence on the financial markets,” Barnier said.

Foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot also raised warning flags.

“At a time when war is on our doorstep, when the planet is in turmoil, when China and the United States want to outpace us ... those who make the decision to overthrow Barnier’s government and deprive France of a budget will be responsible for the mess and disorder,” Barrot said Wednesday on news broadcaster CNews.

Barrot’s comments came as France helped broker the ceasefire deal that ended fighting between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group alongside the U.S.

Following the June-July parliamentary elections, the National Assembly, France’s powerful lower house of parliament, was divided into three major blocs: a left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front, Macron’s centrist allies and the far-right National Rally party. None of them won an outright majority.

Until now, the government counted on the far right’s support to be able to stay in power.

However, far-right leader Marine Le Pen this week threatened to push for a no-confidence motion unless significant changes are made to the country’s budget bill for next year. Le Pen has demanded a freeze on electricity taxes and an increase in state pensions from January.

On Thursday, Barnier offered a compromise, promising not to raise electricity taxes.

France is under pressure from the European Union’s executive body to reduce its colossal debt. Barnier’s cabinet is seeking to reduce the country's deficit from an estimated 6% of Gross Domestic Product now to 5% next year through a 60-billion euro ($66 billion) squeeze.

Finance Minister Antoine Armand has argued that disagreeing with the government is not a reason to “plunge the country into a budgetary and financial unknown.”

With no proper budget to get the state finances back on track, “there’s a risk of stalling like a plane that is at altitude and at some point risks losing control,” Armand said Thursday on news broadcaster BFM TV.

The Speaker of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, said this week that under the French Constitution and other rules, France will not be at risk of a government shutdown that in the United States would disrupt many services and squeeze federal employees.

Many opposition lawmakers who appear ready to bring the government down have argued that an outgoing government could potentially present a special law to levy taxes from Jan. 1. It would also be able to decide on renewing spendings by decree in order to pay civil servants, pensions and other key state expenses.

Le Pen, in a column published in Le Figaro newspaper, said “even in the event of a no-confidence vote, taxes would be raised, civil servants paid, pensions paid, and medical care reimbursed."

She accused the government of ignoring all of her party's proposals.

“And by rejecting this budget... we would be the so-called ‘architects of chaos’? That can’t be serious," she wrote.

Mathilde Panot, head of the hard-left France Unbowed group at the National Assembly, said Thursday “they can explain it’s going to be a catastrophe, a grasshopper invasion, a nuclear accident. But the reality is that we have what we need to ensure the continuity of the state.”

Speaking on FranceInfo, Panot asked for a left-wing cabinet to be appointed instead.

That option had been rejected this summer by Macron, in charge of naming the prime minister.

The next key test is coming Monday for Barnier's government, with a vote on the divisive social security budget scheduled at the National Assembly.

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