Aces playoff seeding: What’s at stake in final 3 games of season?

Who will they play?

The Las Vegas Aces prepare for their final homestand of the regular season, starting Sunday against the Seattle Storm at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Three game remain for them to solidify their position in the WNBA playoff picture before the postseason begins Sept. 27.

Eight teams will make it to the WNBA playoffs. But which one will the Aces meet in the first round?

Playoff seeding scenarios

The Aces sit in third place in the WNBA standings with a 28-13 record, riding a four-game winning streak that began before the FIBA World Cup break.

The Minnesota Lynx already have secured the No. 1 overall seed, making it mathematically impossible for Las Vegas to overtake them for first place. There is still an outside chance for the defending champions to catch the Golden State Valkyries for the No. 2 seed.

The Aces are two games behind the Valkyries and would need to finish the regular season undefeated while also getting some help from Golden State. The Valkyries also have three games remaining, but all three are against teams currently outside the playoff field, giving Las Vegas a narrow path to moving up to second place in the standings.

Instead, the Aces will likely be focused on maintaining their current position by winning the remaining games in front of them against the Storm, Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury.

The magic number for Las Vegas to secure a top-four seed is two, meaning the Aces can afford one loss over their final three games and still secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Winning all three would give Las Vegas a 31-13 record and put the Aces in strong position to finish third, while extending their winning streak to seven games.

Both the Fever and the Dream are one game behind Las Vegas in the standings with identical 27-14 records.

The Aces hold the regular-season tiebreaker over the Atlanta Dream, winning the season series 2-1.

The Fever, however, hold the tiebreaker over Las Vegas after winning two of the teams’ three meetings this season.

This means that if the Aces were to lose two of their final three games while the Fever and Dream each won two of their final three, all three teams would finish with an identical 29-15 record, leading to the league’s tiebreaker procedures to determine their final positions.

If Las Vegas finishes 1-2 to end with a 29-15 record while both Indiana and Atlanta win out, the Aces would drop to the No. 5 seed.

Potential playoff opponents

If the Aces maintain their current position in the standings, they would face the No. 6 seed in the first round, with Dallas currently occupying that position.

The Wings moved into sixth place Saturday with a win over Phoenix, but New York and Washington remain within reach with three games left.

If the Aces fall to No. 4, they could play the No. 5 seed. The only way that the Aces would avoid either the Fever or the Dream in the opening round is to secure the No. 3 seed.

Las Vegas would host the opening game of the best-of-three series in either scenario and, if necessary, the decisive series finale.

Contact Donovan Hicks at dhicks@reviewjournal.com. Follow @HicksSports on X.

Up next

Who: Las Vegas Aces (28-13) at Seattle Storm (8-33)

When: 6 p.m. Sunday

Where: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas

TV: KMCC-TV (Channel 34), CNBC, USA Network

Streaming: Prime Video