NFL betting trends — Week 4: Edge for Raiders-Chiefs

Bruce Marshall is a handicapper for CBS Sportsline. He provides the Las Vegas Review-Journal with NFL notes and trends in the Technicians Edge.

Kansas City at Las Vegas: Though KC lost the season finale at Allegiant Stadium last season, they didn’t have Patrick Mahomes, who is 7-0 straight up and 4-3 against the spread in his career as a visitor against Raiders. The Chiefs closed last season on a 1-8 spread skid but are 3-0 SU and 2-1 vs. the points to open 2026. The Chiefs are also on a 7-1 “under” run since late 2025. The Raiders are 3-0 SU and vs. the spread in a quick 2026 start. The last five in this AFC West series have gone “under” as well. Tech edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

Indianapolis vs. Washington (at London): The Colts have generally started fast under Shane Steichen and are now 13-5 vs. the line in first five games since 2023 on his watch. The Commanders are just 4-8 vs. the points away from Landover since late 2024. Washington is also on a 7-0 “over” run since late 2025. Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Colts, based on “totals” and team trends.

New England at Buffalo: The teams split a pair of games last season. The Patriots haven’t covered their last four away from Gillette Stadium since late last season, also have gone “under” in five straight since late 2025. The Bills are 3-0 SU and vs. line, also on an 8-1-1 “over” run since late 2025. Tech edge: Bills, based on recent trends.

N.Y. Jets at Chicago: The Jets seem improved from the late-season version a year ago, having covered two of their first three this season after losing and failing to cover their last five a year ago. The Bears are now on a 14-6 spread run since early 2025 after the win over the Eagles on Monday. Chicago is also on a 9-5 “under” run since mid 2025. Tech edge: Slight to “under” and Bears, based on “totals” and recent trends.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: The Bengals won and covered this game in close fashion, 31-27, last season. The Jaguars, however, are now on a 10-1 spread run in regular-season games since mid 2025. Note Cincy closed last season on a 6-1 “under” run but is 2-1 “over” to begin the new season. Tech edge: Jags, based on team trends.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants: The Cardinals have begun the new season covering two of their first three after dropping their last five and eight of their last nine vs. the number a year ago. John Harbaugh is 2-1 SU and vs. the line with G-Men, who have won and covered their last three at MetLife since late 2025. After closing 10-2 “over” a year ago, N.Y. has gone “under” in two of its first three to begin this season. Tech edge: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.

L.A. Rams at Philadelphia: Interestingly, Rams coach Sean McVay is just 1-6 SU all-time vs. the Eagles. The Rams have also failed to cover their last six away from SoFi after last week’s loss at Denver, and after closing on an 8-1 “over” run last season are 2-1 “under” to begin 2026. The Birds are 0-3 vs. the spread this season, with no cover in last five or eight of 11 since late 2025. After closing 8-2 “under” a year ago, Philly “over” is 2-1 to begin 2026. Tech edge: Slight to Eagles, based on series trends.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay: Former NFC Central rivals long ago, neither team has covered a spread in three tries to begin this season. The Pack are now on a 0-7-1 spread skid since late 2025, and are 2-11-1 vs. the number on the road since late 2024. The Bucs do Green Bay a bit better, however, now on a 12-game spread skid since mid 2025. Tampa Bay is also on a 5-1 “under” run since late last season. Tech edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

Tennessee at Baltimore: The Titans are now on a 5-13-1 spread skid as a visitor since late 2023, though the Ravens have dropped their last five vs. the spread as host. Baltimore is on a 5-1 “over” run since late 2025. Tech edge: Slight to Ravens and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Dallas at Houston: The Texans won big, 34-10, at Arlington in 2024 when Dak Prescott was out and Cooper Rush was at QB. The Cowboys, however, have dropped their last five and seven of the last eight vs. the spread as a visitor. Dallas is also now on an 8-0-1 “over” run since late 2025. Houston is 0-4 SU and vs. the spread since late last season. Tech edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

Miami at Minnesota: The Dolphins are 0-3 SU and vs. the line, while the Vikings are 3-0 SU and vs. the line thus far. The Dolphins have no covers their last four away from Hard Rock Stadium since late last year. Minnesota is now 8-0 SU, 7-0-1 vs. the spread since late 2025. Tech edge: Vikings, based on team trends.

Denver at San Francisco: The Broncos are now on a 7-0 spread run as an underdog since early 2025. They’re also 6-2 “under” their last eight away from Mile High. The Niners are 3-0 SU to begin season but still only 6-10-1 vs. the spread at Santa Clara since mid 2024. Tech edge: Broncos, based on team trends.

L.A. Chargers at Seattle: The Bolts have started the season 0-3 SU and vs. the line, and are now 0-6 SU and vs. the line since late 2025. They’re also “under” 3-0 and on an 8-0-1 “under” run. The Seahawks dropped five spread decisions last season and came back with a spread cover in the next game on four occasions, and are off loss last week at Commanders. The Seahawks are still on a 16-5-1 spread surge since early last season. Tech edge: Seahawks and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Detroit at Carolina: The Lions had dropped eight of their previous 10 vs. the spread prior to last week’s win and narrow cover vs. Jets, and are also just 2-5 vs. the spread their last seven away. Detroit is also now on a 10-3 “over” run since early 2025. The Panthers covered eight of their last 11 as a ’dog a year ago, though they’re just 0-1 in that role thus far in 2026. Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Panthers, based on “totals” and team trends.

Atlanta at New Orleans, Monday: The Falcons won and covered both meetings last season, narrowly in the regular-season finale. The last three and five of the last seven in the series have stayed “under” as well. The Saints had covered eight straight since late 2025 prior to last week’s loss to the Raiders. Tech edge: Slight to Saints and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.