NFL betting: Rams revenge, Patriots among best Week 4 bets

Revenge can be a big deal in college football rivalries, but is it a real handicapping angle in the NFL?

If Rams coach Sean McVay is serious about getting revenge for a gut-punch loss in Philadelphia last season, that would be nice for those of us betting on the Rams this weekend.

It’s time to reflect on what was arguably the worst beat of last season. The Rams, who were 3.5-point underdogs, led the Eagles 26-7 early in the third quarter. The lead disappeared with about two minutes remaining when Jalen Hurts’ touchdown pass put Philadelphia on top 27-26. Matthew Stafford responded and drove the Rams into field-goal position with three seconds left, setting up Joshua Karty for a 44-yard try to win.

Of course, Karty’s kick was blocked by Jordan Davis, a 330-pound defensive tackle. But that was not the end of it. Davis scooped up the ball and, instead of falling down to end the game, improbably rumbled 61 yards for a touchdown and a 33-26 win and cover.

We all have long memories when it comes to bad beats. Hopefully, the Rams get some revenge because I’m counting on McVay and Stafford in my best bets for Week 4.

Rams (-3.5) at Eagles

Stafford and the Rams blew a 16-0 halftime lead Sunday night in Denver and took a controversial 30-26 loss. The game featured another officiating controversy, with the Rams flagged for 13 penalties to the Broncos’ five. The biggest mistake by the officials, later admitted by the league, was a defensive pass interference penalty that wiped out an interception that would have sealed the win for the Rams.

Stafford also threw a pick-six that fueled Denver’s fourth-quarter comeback. So the Super Bowl favorites are 1-2 and need to get back on track, meaning this should be a spot to support a focused favorite.

The Rams finished with a 482-257 advantage in total yards, with Stafford passing for 390 yards and Kyren Williams rushing for 88. The Los Angeles offense is fine and gets a boost with receiver Puka Nacua returning from a two-game injury absence.

The Philadelphia offense has problems that were again on display Monday night in a 27-7 loss at Chicago. The Bears, behind 38-year-old quarterback Case Keenum, outgained the Eagles 375-248 and possessed the ball for nearly 37 minutes. Jalen Hurts, badly outplayed by Keenum, has regressed and is now without top receiver DeVonta Smith because of a hip injury.

I bet the Rams at -2.5 (-115) early in the week, and the line move is no surprise. It’s tough to recommend laying the current price of -3.5, but the Rams remain the preferred side. Hopefully, they avoid blowing this one in the fourth quarter.

Best bet: Rams -185 moneyline

Patriots at Bills (-7)

A handicapping angle to always consider is betting a good team off a bad loss, and the Patriots were handed an embarrassing 35-6 beating at Jacksonville.

The defending AFC champions definitely have the stronger defense, ranking in the top six in scoring (17 points per game) and yards allowed (278 per game). Buffalo has one of the league’s weakest defenses, allowing 26 points and 361 yards per game. It’s not great news that New England will be without defensive stars Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore because of injuries.

The Patriots are still a good team, though Drake Maye has been an awful quarterback since the playoffs. Maye, who has one touchdown pass and six interceptions, did play well last year when New England pulled off an upset at Buffalo.

Josh Allen committed three of the Bills’ five turnovers last week against the Chargers. If Allen returns to his MVP form and Maye continues his trend of terrible play, this bet is in big trouble.

But a wounded underdog with the better defense should be worth a shot when getting this many points.

Best bet: Patriots +7

Four more plays for Sunday

Texans -3 vs. Cowboys

Bengals -2.5 vs. Jaguars

Dolphins-Vikings under 38.5

49ers -2.5 vs. Broncos