VICTOR JOECKS: When the reality debunks the narrative

If Nevada made potential voters pinky-promise that they are citizens, it would be an improvement over the status quo.

Nevada has as many as 15,903 noncitizens on its voter rolls, according to DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. He wrote this in a Thursday letter to Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar. The figure is based on the “concerning results of a recent analysis of Nevada’s publicly available voter registration database information.”

“We refute these claims,” Aguilar said in a statement. “These numbers are wildly speculative at best, and the Department of Homeland Security hasn’t shared anything that backs it up.”

Perhaps Aguilar should have read the rest of Mullin’s letter.

“As an example, we found 8,576 Nevada registrants for whom the name, date of birth, address and Social Security number match a non-citizen in our files,” Mullin wrote.

That’s a very specific bit of information that backs up Mullin’s claim. It’s also plausible because the federal government runs the immigration system and Social Security. Some noncitizens can legally obtain a Social Security number.

Mullin offered to help Aguilar “positively identify the individual non-citizens registered in your state.” That would inlcude providing “immigration records.”

Don’t expect Aguilar to take him up on the offer. He doesn’t believe this could be a problem. “There are numerous safeguards in place to prevent noncitizens, or anyone ineligible to vote, from casting a ballot,” Aguilar said.

His office then provided a list of those supposed safeguards. It starts with “citizenship is a legal qualification.” That isn’t a safeguard. People break laws all the time.

Next up is “applicants must affirm citizenship.” That’s the honor system, not a security measure. “Criminal penalties for false registration” follows that. At best, that’s a reactive measure. But when Aguilar refuses to even entertain the idea that noncitizens are on the voter rolls, it’s not much of a deterrent.

Another supposed safeguard is that DMV “customers who indicate they are not a U.S. citizen or present immigration documents as proof of identity are not included in the automatic voter registration process.” This is helpful. But it’s also not foolproof.

In 2021, I wrote about Helena Schneider, who received a voter registration card after going to the DMV. One problem. She was a Canadian citizen. The Nevada DMV blamed human error. Aguilar isn’t interested in finding out how many “errors” there could be on Nevada’s voter rolls.

Aguilar also touts “identity verification” as a safeguard. Officials verify the driver’s license or identification or Social Security number provided by voters. But noncitizens can obtain Nevada driver’s licenses and Social Security numbers. You can’t verify citizenship using a database that includes noncitizens.

“Trust, don’t verify” is a foolhardy way to run elections — at least if you want to stop voter fraud. Just look at New Jersey.

On Tuesday, New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill announced that her state’s Motor Vehicle System had incorrectly registered around 6,600 noncitizens to vote from June 2023 to June 2024. Further, it appears hundreds of them voted.

But remember, you’re a conspiracy theorist if you think there could be thousands of noncitizens on Nevada’s voter rolls. Don’t you dare let reality debunk Aguilar’s preferred narrative.