College football betting: Favorites offer value in Apple Cup, Lambeau standoff

While we await our first NFL Sunday, we have some rare Sunday college football action. There are three games, including the potential for a real banger between Louisville and Ole Miss, but that is not one of the games on Steve Makinen’s radar.

Instead, Steve has best bets on the Apple Cup between Washington State and Washington and the neutral-site game at Lambeau Field featuring Wisconsin and Notre Dame.

Washington State at Washington (-23½)

How much change can one program handle? We should be finding out the answer this year with Washington State as the Cougars begin their first season in the rebuilt Pac-12.

They will do it with a new coaching staff, led by coach Kirby Moore. He will be the program’s fifth different coach since 2019. So far, the Cougars have been able to stave off the usual problems associated with such frequent transitions, but I think that could finally change this season. After finishing two games different from one another last season, rival Washington is staked to a 23½-point line on Sunday.

We know that new head coaches are 92-154 SU and 111-133 ATS (45.5 percent) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning coaches since 2021, and new defensive coordinators are 167-198 SU and 165-195 ATS (45.8 percent) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021.

However, I think we also need to consider how good the Huskies have been at home under coach Jedd Fisch, going 8-2 as home chalk in his two seasons.

Best Bet: Washington -23½

Wisconsin at Notre Dame (-20½)

It was 10 years ago when Wisconsin last played at Lambeau Field and hosted an elite program in LSU, eventually pulling a memorable upset in that contest. I hate to say it, but this Badgers team is nowhere close to the level of that one. That team won 11 games, and followed with a record 13-win season a year later.

This game is coming off two seasons winning a combined nine games, and while the prospects might be brighter for 2026 than they were a year ago, I don’t think opening the schedule against what could be the nation’s most complete team is what coach Luke Fickell was hoping for.

The Irish are loaded on both sides of the ball with 17 starters back, and we know that teams with 17+ total returning starters are 108-89 SU and 108-87 ATS (55.4 percent) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021.

I also showed readers in my Weeks 0/1 concepts article that the most small of favorites and hefty favorites win the early neutral field showdowns between non-conference Power 4 foes, as those laying less 3½ points or fewer are on a 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS (71.4 percent) run since 2013, while those laying 12½ points or more have gone 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9 percent) in that same time frame.

Unfortunately for Wisconsin, this spot fits perfectly into two tendencies in which Notre Dame has thrived lately. Notre Dame is 39-19 ATS (67.2 percent) for +18.1 units in road/neutral games since 2017, and Notre Dame is 37-17 ATS (68½ percent) for +18.3 units as a favorite since 2021. With national title aspirations, coach Marcus Freeman’s team needs to roll, and the Badgers could be the opening victim just standing in the way.

Best bet: Give me Notre Dame -20½ to roll