College football betting: Trust North Texas’ explosive offense against Tulsa

Speculation had reigned supreme in the market this week, as Tulsa head coach Tre Lamb said in Monday’s media availability that QB Baylor Hayes, who did not play last week against Arkansas, is a “true game-time decision” and lamented how it’s a short week. North Texas moved from +2.5 to +1.5 and even down to +1 at some places as Lamb’s comments made the rounds. On Wednesday, it was reported that Hayes would start.

With head coach Eric Morris and most of the roster up a state in Stillwater, it feels like not much has changed from a scoring standpoint for North Texas. They were held to 16 points by Indiana in the opener, but have scored 44, 35, and 63 in three games since. Unfortunately, they gave up 49 points to Texas State in Week 3 and sit 2-2 on the season with conference play set to get underway.

As the point totals imply, this is still a potent offense, led by one-time Indiana recruit Tayven Jackson, who has completed better than 74 percent of his passes with a 6/2 TD/INT ratio. He’s only been sacked twice and the offensive line has done a good job in pass protection, but also in terms of opening holes for Jahiem White, who transferred in from West Virginia to rejoin head coach Neal Brown. White has ripped off seven yards per carry thus far, but the 5-foot-7 spark plug, much like his team, has been inconsistent. He had 4.4 yards per carry against Indiana and then 10.3 YPC against UNLV before only racking up 45 yards on 15 carries in the loss to the Bobcats.

White has scored a touchdown in all four games and had four of them last week against Houston Baptist in a controlled scrimmage for the Mean Green. That could be an advantage for them this week, given that the Golden Hurricane played Arkansas. Tulsa fell to 3-1 in Fayetteville, dropping a lopsided 34-6 decision with longtime college QB Dexter Williams behind center. He was just 20-of-32 for 176 yards with zero TD or INT and only had eight yards on six carries.

Lamb would never say that last week’s game was a punt, and his top defensive players all featured prominently in the matchup, but you do wonder how much scouting and film room time went into the Razorbacks. With a win over Oklahoma State already in the bag, performing well in conference play in hopes of being the Group of Six College Football Playoff representative is the goal for Lamb and his staff.

Hayes has completed 62.3 percent of his tosses with a 1/1 TD/INT ratio, while Williams has completed 57.6 percent of his throws with a 3/0 TD/INT ratio. Hayes emerged over Kirk Francis in Lamb’s first season last year as a freshman starter with a 12/6 TD/INT ratio after coming over from East Tennessee State alongside his head coach. Lamb, who played QB at Tennessee Tech, gave Hayes the keys to the offense right away, though Francis did play while Hayes battled injury in early October.

We didn’t see it last week against the Razorbacks, but Tulsa has run the rock effectively this season with 5.2 yards per carry. Leading rusher Damari Alston has 4.7 YPC on 45 tries, while Trequan Jones has a 6.8 YPC average thanks to an 81-yard TD run against Sam Houston State.

In three FBS games, Tulsa has 5.24 yards per play, while North Texas has 6.47 in their three FBS contests, racking up nearly 10 yards per play last week against HBU. The Mean Green definitely have the better offense, especially with Hayes’ status up in the air. But, Tulsa’s defense has been more stout, holding FBS opponents to 5.11 YPP. The Mean Green have allowed over 6.7 YPP to FBS foes.

North Texas vs. Tulsa Prediction

To add another wrinkle to this game, the forecast for Tulsa on Thursday has a lot of rain from Wednesday night all the way through this game and on into the overnight hours. This is a FieldTurf surface, so it won’t be a mud puddle, but a wet ball has the chance to impact both offenses and there is the possibility of a lightning delay that could interrupt the flow for everybody.

But, I’ll trust the more explosive offense here. Tulsa’s racked up 13 sacks in four games, but Brown’s offense is getting the ball out very quick, as the Mean Green have only taken three sacks thus far. Even with the wet weather, I expect North Texas to get their points and I don’t think Tulsa, even with Hayes, has the offense to keep up.

Pick: North Texas +1.5