Sports betting: Best to bet against change in college football

With Week 0 upon us, it is a reminder of how betting college football early in the season can be difficult. With the transfer portal and coaching carousel operating at fever pitches, most teams look very different from the previous season. To try and account for this, I like to calculate a team’s “Stability Score” in hopes that continuity will beat chaos in the first few weeks.

Here are the basics of how I determine each team’s Total Stability Score. In essence, the score is determined from five different stabilizing factors: Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, Quarterback, and Overall Returning Starters. Here is how the scores are determined:

— Yes, same Head Coach as 2025: 4 points.

— No, new Head Coach for 2026: 0 points.

— Yes, same Offensive Coordinator as 2025: 3 points.

— No, new Offensive Coordinator for 2026: 0 points.

— Yes, same Defensive Coordinator as 2025: 3 points.

— No, new Defensive Coordinator for 2026: 0 points.

— Yes, same Starting Quarterback as 2025: 4 points.

— No, new Starting Quarterback for 2026: 0 points.

I consider a transfer quarterback expected to start for his team a new quarterback, regardless of the starting experience he brings to the table. For 2026, numerous recognizable QBs have again found new starting homes across the country. For instance, Josh Hoover at Indiana or Sam Leavitt at LSU are among the veteran QBs across the country that boast big-game college football experience but will be in new schemes this fall. While they are not your typical first-year quarterbacks, they are NEW to those programs.

— 0-7 returning offensive & defensive starters: 0 points.

— 8-9: 1 point.

— 10-12: 2 points.

— 13-16: 3 points.

— 17-19: 4 points.

— 20-22: 5 points.

Keeping that in mind, here are the Week 0 picks that apply to my Stability Score systems:

NEW head coaches are 91-153 SU and 110-132 ATS (45.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021

2026 Week 0 plays: Against Sacramento State +9.5, Against Memphis +4.5

New offensive coordinators are 157-203 SU and 177-178 ATS (49.9%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning offensive coordinators since 2021

New defensive coordinators are 165-198 SU and 163-195 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021

2026 Week 0 plays: Against Stanford -4, against Memphis +4.5

NEW starting quarterbacks are 159-178 SU and 157-172 ATS (47.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021

Teams with 0-7 total returning starters are 21-60 SU and 40-41 ATS (49.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 8+ since 2021

Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 107-89 SU and 108-86 ATS (55.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021

2026 Week 0 plays: On USC -38.5

Over the last decade-plus, the “old stability system” was about a 57% consistent running strategy. However, I was also able to recognize that conference games were pulling the winning percentages down.

The other two things I found that were negatively impacting my Stability System results were 1) games with point spreads of 30+ and 2) leaving out teams with an edge of 6 on the stability scores.

With the stats above in mind, my official new College Football Stability System(s) will read as follows:

Play on any team with a stability score edge of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (335-222 SU & 302-243-12 ATS, 55.4% since 2013)

2026 Week 0 plays: On Eastern Michigan -9.5, on Hawaii +4, on UNLV -4.5

Play Against any college football teams with stability scores of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game DOES NOT have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (FADE record 259-136 SU and 217-173-4 ATS, 55.6% since 2013)

2026 Week 0 plays: Against Sacramento State +9.5, against Stanford -4, against Memphis +4.5

To summarize, the strongest Week 0 plays based on team Stability Scores are: Eastern Michigan -9.5, UNLV -4.5, and Hawaii +4.