NFL betting: Line doesn’t reflect new-look Falcons for ‘Monday Night Football’

Division rivals come together on Monday Night Football as the Falcons and Saints wrap up Week 4 with a big battle in the NFC South. With the Buccaneers falling to 0-4, it sure looks like this game could carry a lot of weight in the playoff chase.

Here are Steve Makinen’s thoughts on the game:

I’m not sure anyone who watched last Thursday’s game, when Atlanta went into Green Bay and won 35-14, didn’t look at the Falcons as a completely different team with QB Michael Penix under center. Funny, though, I don’t think this week’s line reflects the “new” Atlanta team as much as it should.

I think this MNF trend should be given strong consideration when looking at the game in New Orleans: Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 10-6 SU and ATS (62.5 percent) in their last 16 tries.

As it is, the Saints are in a tough covering spot, as home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 18-17 SU but 13-21-1 ATS (38.2 percent) in their last 35 tries. As a franchise, New Orleans is just 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 MNF games and 0-8 in its last eight prime-time games overall.

In general, I like the comfort of knowing favorites will score enough to cover lines when I back them. In that case, for head coach Kellen Moore’s team, this trend is a major concern: New Orleans is on a 17-1 Under-the-total run when playing with extra rest (more than seven days).

Prime-time game bettors have absolutely floundered in the early going in the NFL, as my betting splits systems have accurately projected: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 139-157 ATS (47 percent) and 138-155 ATS (47.1 percent), respectively.

This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF) and Monday night contests. I believe I saw an 0-10 mark for 2026 so far.

Add to all this the fact that underdogs have gone 7-1 ATS in the last eight games of the Falcons-Saints NFC South rivalry, and I think we have the makings of a live ’dog in the new-look Falcons.

Best bet: I’ll go with Atlanta +2½, with a great shot at an upset in New Orleans on MNF.