Trump’s Russian oil tariff waiver offers India temporary relief, GTRI warns

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) warned on Saturday that the decision by the US president, Donald Trump, to waive threatened tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil gives India breathing space but no lasting protection for its exports. Washington can restore additional duties of up to 100 per cent under a law that remains in force, potentially reopening a dispute over New Delhi’s energy purchases as trade negotiations continue.

Trump’s executive order, issued on Friday, invoked Section 115 of the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which became law on September 18. It suspended specified duties, sanctions and restrictions on national-interest grounds without repealing the legislation.

How the tariff threat works

The order provides for a 500 per cent increase in duties on Russian goods and additional 100 per cent duties on goods entering the US from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas if they knowingly make new purchases from Sunday. Both tariff provisions have been waived. The threatened penalty concerns goods exported to the US, not tariffs on crude oil imported into India.

The White House said it had certified to Congress that the waiver served US national interests. It has no fixed expiry date, but the president or the secretary of state can reconsider it after consultations. Existing Russia sanctions imposed through separate executive orders remain unaffected.

The waiver does not end Washington’s scrutiny of Russian energy purchases. Under the executive order, the US Trade Representative, in consultation with senior officials, will continue monitoring imports of Russian crude and natural gas, along with possible sanctions evasion, and report developments to the president. This allows the administration to reconsider the suspended penalties if circumstances change.

Oil supplies and trade talks

India has already begun diversifying its oil supplies. Russia’s share of Indian crude imports fell from 51 per cent in July to 44 per cent in August, with GTRI attributing the shift partly to increased purchases from the US, despite higher prices, and the United Arab Emirates. The changing import pattern highlights New Delhi’s challenge of balancing affordable energy supplies with the risk of renewed American trade restrictions.

Separate trade-source data cited by Reuters showed Russian crude imports declining 16.5 per cent to about 2.1 million barrels per day in August, while updated figures from the ship-tracking firm Kpler placed September imports at 1.82 million barrels per day.

The commercial stakes are substantial: Indian merchandise exports to the US reached $50.81 billion in April-September. The commerce minister, Piyush Goyal, said on Thursday that the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement was undergoing legal drafting, with New Delhi seeking better tariff terms than competing exporters. Energy and trade are also on the agenda when the external affairs minister, S Jaishankar, meets the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, in Mumbai on October 20.

The GTRI founder, Ajay Srivastava, also questioned Washington’s approach, pointing to its October 9 agreement to purchase Russian diesel to ease domestic shortages and high fuel prices. He argued that penalizing other countries for buying Russian energy while securing similar supplies could expose the US to accusations of double standards. China, meanwhile, enjoys protection against further US tariff increases until January 10, 2027, under a separate agreement. Srivastava suggested that Beijing’s ability to retaliate strengthens its negotiating position, while targeting India alone could disrupt ongoing bilateral trade negotiations.

“For India, the waiver buys time but offers no lasting certainty. India should protect its energy security, buy oil on commercial terms and prepare for renewed US pressure. Temporary tariff relief is no basis for permanent trade concessions,” Srivastava said.