Two red states just became Senate toss-ups, and the GOP is on defense
by Mary McCue Bell · The Washington TimesThe Texas and Iowa Senate races are now toss-ups rather than safe for their Republican opponents, according to a new election analysis.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted both races from the Lean Republican column to saying they could go either way in November.
Jessica Taylor, the Cook Senate and governors editor, wrote Thursday that in the Lone Star State, the GOP’s scandal-plagued candidate, Attorney General Ken Paxton, is “notably underperforming even a generic Republican in GOP polling.”
“The deeply flawed Paxton is underwater by as much as double digits in some surveys,” while state Rep. James Talarico, the Texas Democratic Senate candidate, “remains right-side up in his favorables,” she wrote.
Senate Republicans originally went against President Trump to financially back Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, but Mr. Paxton won.
Now Mr. Talarico will “soon be hit with millions in ads designed to paint him as outside of the mainstream,” Ms. Taylor wrote.
“But the soft-spoken seminary student also has attributes that make him appealing to disaffected Republicans, whom his campaign is aggressively targeting,” she continued.
Democrats can’t gloss over the fact that Mr. Talarico has “liabilities that Republicans can — and will — exploit, including his comments that ’God is non-binary’ and that there are multiple genders,” Ms. Taylor wrote.
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The last time Democrats almost prevailed in Texas was in the 2018 Senate election, when Republican incumbent Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke 50.9% to 48.3%. It was the closest Senate race in the state since 1978 and generated massive national enthusiasm and Democratic fundraising.
This time around, surmounting 50% of the vote as a Democrat in a red state is a tall order, but because Mr. Talarico and Mr. Paxton are joined by a libertarian on the ballot, this may end up helping the Democratic nominee, according to the Cook Report.
The report said that in Iowa, campaigns have been dominated by “rising fertilizer and diesel prices, in addition to tariffs, [which] have uniquely harmed the state’s agriculture-dependent economy.”
Voters in agriculture-heavy states may not soon forget such skyrocketing prices, and there is “no guarantee any of those prices will fall enough to help Republicans by the time voters begin casting ballots,” Ms. Taylor wrote.
In the Senate race, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson is a strong fundraiser, and her Democratic challenger, Rep. Josh Turek, would need to raise more money “if this is going to remain a top-tier opportunity for Democrats,” Ms. Taylor wrote.
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However, she added, “the early spending Republicans are already deploying to define Turek shows they’re concerned about their prospects in this now-battleground state.”
Just like in Texas, the two big-party candidates have a third opponent: a libertarian who could end up giving Mr. Turek an advantage.
Republicans gained a financial and strategic boost by a recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down federal limits on coordinated spending between political parties and candidates, the analyst notes.
With 75 days until the midterms, Republicans are fighting to keep control of the upper chamber, while Democrats are looking to wrestle it back.
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Mary McCue Bell
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