Trump’s approval rating exposes deeper questions about polling credibility
by Cal Thomas · The Washington TimesOPINION:
A recent headline in The Washington Post read “Trump disapproval reaches new high, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds.” The subheadline: “Democrats now hold a five-point advantage in support for Congress, up from two points in February.”
We have seen similar polls before. Many conservatives believe they are conducted in a way that discourages Republican voters and encourages Democrats, especially when conducted by media organizations that conservatives view as favoring Democrats.
Conservatives are right to be suspicious; just 2,500 people responded to the pollsters.
The issues to which the polled responded are job as president (62% disapprove), cost of living (76% disapprove), inflation (72% disapprove), Iran conflict (66% disapprove), relations with U.S. allies (65% disapprove), the economy (65% disapprove), taxes (61% disapprove) and immigration (59% disapprove).
I suspect much of the disapproval stems in part from President Trump’s caustic personality, name-calling, belittling others and foul language.
Yet, on the negative numbers about his overall performance, I question the depth of the knowledge of those being polled.
The cost of living, gas prices and inflation were far worse during the Biden administration. I know our attention span may be shorter than ever before, but this might be a record failure to remember such recent conditions.
On taxes, high earners received the biggest refunds in years, according to the Center for American Progress, though returns were “negligible for taxpayers with incomes below $50,000.”
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Here are questions I would have asked people had I been doing the polling to gauge whether their opinions are based on facts or other factors:
- Do you recall the higher gas prices, higher inflation and overall economy during the Biden years?
- Mr. Trump closed the southern border, but those people whom President Biden let in included criminals, some of whom have assaulted and killed U.S. citizens. Did you know that?
- Would you be OK if we did nothing and Iran completed its nuclear enrichment, created several bombs, put them on top of missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, and fired them at Israel and the East Coast of the United States?
- What are your news sources, and how do you receive information — TikTok? MS NOW? The New York Times and The Washington Post? CNN? Fox News? Conversations with friends? Teachers and professors?
The amount one knows about a subject determines one’s opinion. If someone is what has been called a “low-information voter,” not going beyond the superficial can affect his or her opinion, which may not be based on facts.
Consider the declining poll numbers for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani among Jewish voters, who were persuaded to vote for him by promises of free stuff. (They have never lived under socialism.) Consider Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who ran as an undefined “moderate” and now is governing like a far-left liberal.
Why do many voters get fooled in almost every election cycle? It is because they are not paying attention or they are influenced by the increasingly negative political ads they see on television.
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Another problem is that a lot of people (mostly Republicans) refuse to speak to pollsters and, thus, the results are skewed.
Maybe the Post-ABC-Ipsos poll is right this time, or maybe it isn’t. As always, it depends on turnout and whether enough voters want to return to the policies of the Biden years.
The 2024 presidential election showed they didn’t, but we do have short memories.
• Readers may email Cal Thomas at tcaeditors@tribpub.com. Look for Cal Thomas’ latest book, “A Watchman in the Night: What I’ve Seen Over 50 Years Reporting on America” (Humanix Books).
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