‘Supergirl’ tracking data draws concerns from box office analysts ahead of June opening

Early tracking projections for “Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow” have drawn concern from box office analysts about the film’s commercial prospects, with its domestic debut potentially falling well below last year’s DCU opener, “Superman.”

According to Box Office Theory projections cited by industry observers, the Warner Bros. release — set to open June 26 — is currently forecast to debut domestically between $47 million and $65 million. That range would place it numerically between “The Marvels,” which opened to $46 million in 2023 on a reported budget of more than $220 million, and “Black Adam,” which opened to $67 million in 2022. “Supergirl”’s budget has not been officially disclosed; industry outlet Puck estimates it at roughly $170 million, a meaningfully different cost profile. By comparison, last year’s “Superman,” the DCU’s first theatrical release, opened to $122 million domestically on its way to more than $600 million worldwide.

Analysts at World of Reel noted this week that Warner Bros. has so far failed to build the same sense of event-film urgency around “Supergirl” that it generated for “Superman” last July. The film opens into a crowded corridor of summer competition, arriving one week after “Toy Story 5,” five days before “Minions & Monsters” and two weeks before Disney’s live-action “Moana” remake.

As the second theatrical release in DC Studios’ Chapter One slate — overseen by writer-director James Gunn and co-chairman Peter Safran — the film carries added weight. Puck’s Scott Mendelson has reported that industry executives would likely consider a global gross of around $425 million “good enough,” factoring in the estimated production budget, though Puck notes Warner Bros. would prefer the film to clear $500 million. Profitability calculations for studio tentpoles also account for marketing costs, tax incentives and downstream revenue streams not reflected in gross figures alone.

Separate from the tracking numbers, star Milly Alcock’s recent press interviews have generated online criticism. In a Variety cover story published May 20, Ms. Alcock described many of her social media detractors as anonymous “burner accounts” or profiles identifying as “Dad of four, Christian,” calling such accounts “hilarious.”

She added, “If you’re pissing the right kind of people off, you’re doing OK.” The remarks drew criticism in online entertainment communities and were covered by Fox News, which noted some observers drew parallels to pre-release controversies involving other franchise films — though the actors and projects involved were quite different in context.

DC Studios co-chairman Mr. Safran has publicly backed Ms. Alcock’s approach, telling Variety he called her after an earlier round of backlash. “I called her and just said, ’You’re doing great! You’re handling it beautifully,’” he said.

Ms. Alcock, who debuted as Kara Zor-El in “Superman,” stars in the Craig Gillespie-directed film alongside Matthias Schoenaerts, Eve Ridley, David Krumholtz, Emily Beecham and Jason Momoa. The film is based on Tom King’s 2021 comic run and follows a darker, revenge-driven version of the character on a cosmic journey. Whether its premise and marketing campaign can build momentum with general audiences before opening day remains the central question for DC Studios heading into the summer.

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