South Korea raises volume on defense autonomy, defies Trump on nuclear sub build in local shipyards
by Andrew Salmon · The Washington TimesSEOUL, South Korea — Seoul is striving to secure strategic and industrial autonomy by promoting an early release of its troops from U.S. wartime operational control and disclosing plans for a nascent nuclear submarine program.
These and related matters indicate a widening gap between the two allies.
Washington’s top general in Korea is sticking to the U.S. script on “OPCON Transfer.” That stipulates that command transfer must be based on the achievement of certain conditions, rather than any specific timeframe.
Army Gen. Xavier T. Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, has also repeatedly promoted the peninsula — the only U.S. military foothold on the Asian mainland — as a node for regional operations. That concept makes Seoul uncomfortable as it seeks amicable relations with Beijing.
President Trump, in a surprise move last October, gave South Korean President Lee Jae-myung the green light to proceed with nuclear-powered — though not nuclear-armed — attack submarines.
Permission was required: Under a Seoul-Washington energy pact, South Korea is barred from using fissile materials for military purposes.
But while Mr. Trump said the subs will be built in the United States, Seoul made clear that would not happen.
Experts are raising questions over how far Seoul can push strategic autonomy and on the wider advisability of the nuclear submarine program — likely the country’s most-expensive defense acquisition ever.
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South Korea steps up
“Only with a strong will for autonomous national defense can we gain the respect of friends and further strengthen our alliances,” Mr. Lee told his Cabinet on Tuesday, according to local media. “Please proceed promptly and without disruption with the transfer of wartime operational control, which will drive the healthy development of the [bilateral] alliance.”
Washington applauds allies taking greater responsibility for their own defense, but the two allies may not be on the same page on the conditions, and therefore timing, of OPCON Transfer.
On Tuesday, Mr. Lee pushed back against those who express concern that strategic autonomy would weaken the U.S. alliance during the first meeting of the newly formed Future Defense Strategy Committee at South Korea’s Submarine Command in Jinhae.
“I guess a mindset of dependency still has a foothold in defense circles,” the Korean president said. “The fundamental duty of the state is to defend itself through its own resources.”
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Customarily, conservative Seoul administrations have aligned themselves as closely as possible with Washington. Progressive governments, such as Mr. Lee’s, have prioritized more defense independence.
The meeting in Jinhae saw new information released on the nuclear submarine program. If executed, it will place Korea in an exclusive club: Only China, France, India, Russia, the United Kingdom and the U.S. currently deploy nuclear-powered submarines.
Korea, home to massive-scale domestic shipyards and efficient nuclear plants, looks well-positioned in an ongoing underwater nuclear race.
Australia aims to acquire nuclear boats under the trilateral AUKUS program, linking Canberra, London and Washington. But it appears hamstrung by shortfalls in U.K.-U.S. naval build capacity.
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Brazil is working with France on nuclear boats, while North Korea works domestically to the same end, though its progress remains in the shadows.
“We will work to launch the first nuclear-powered submarine in the mid-2030s and push ahead with development to enter operational service in the latter half of the 2030s or later,” South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back said, according to Yonhap News Agency.
The Ministry of National Defense released a blueprint of the project that makes clear the vessels’ strategic and industrial import.
“Nuclear-powered submarines possess dramatically enhanced operational capabilities compared to existing diesel-powered submarines, including long-duration submerged endurance and high mobility,” the document reads, according to a translation by specialist media Naval News. “The development of nuclear-powered submarines is not merely a warship construction project, but a national strategic project that requires the concentration of national capabilities based on [South Korean] technologies in the nuclear and shipbuilding sectors.”
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“In order to secure autonomy and stability in force acquisition, sustainment, and maintenance, the nuclear-powered submarine will be developed and built within [South Korea],” the document adds.
Reliance on local shipyards and nuclear plants means Seoul is unlikely to fall victim to AUKUS-style uncertainty.
But it may irk Mr. Trump. He posted Oct. 30 on Truth Social: “South Korea will be building its Nuclear Powered Submarine in the Philadelphia Shipyards, right here in the good ‘ol U.S.A.”
Given uncertainties over U.S. yards’ ability to deliver sufficient submarines even to the U.S. Navy, that claim stumped pundits. Australia’s Lowy Institute headlined an analysis of Mr. Trump’s statement, “The Mystery of South Korea’s Nuclear-Powered Submarines.”
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The proposed fleet — neither the number of boats nor their cost were specified in Tuesday’s document — will use minimally enhanced uranium fuel and will comply with International Atomic Energy Agency guidelines.
Those conditions appear aimed at allaying proliferation concerns.
“The announcement appears to fit within Seoul’s broader push for greater defense autonomy,” Naval News commented. “It also reflects South Korea’s ambition to become a stronger maritime power based on its own industrial and technological capabilities.”
“That is what we should do,” said Yang Uk, a defense specialist at the Asan Institute, a Seoul think tank. “I don’t see any enthusiasm or willingness for the U.S. to help us with nuclear subs; the problem is always maritime resources.”
Questions mount over the ability of American armorers to replenish munitions used against Iran, as well as naval shipbuilding. Korea’s military-industrial might is less in question.
Its weapons firms have benefitted mightily from the Ukraine war, selling tens of billions of dollars-worth of armor, artillery and rocketry to NATO nations, and the Iran conflict, where their air-defense systems have proven their worth.
Seoul is also promoting naval exports. South Korea is bidding against Germany to build Canada’s next-generation diesel-electric submarine fleet. Seoul has even deployed an operational boat to Canada on a goodwill visit — a record voyage for a Korean submarine.
Questions and concerns
Mr. Yang has concerns about the cost of the fleet, citing the Korean term “car poor” — referring to a person who invests so heavily in his automobile that he lacks money for other essentials.
“This nuclear sub project could make our navy ‘submarine poor,’” the think tank defense specialist said. “We won’t have resources to invest in other projects.”
Seoul and Tokyo have not taken the same rhetorical fire Washington has aimed at NATO, and both continue to talk up their alliances with the U.S. But the Korean developments take place against a backdrop of regional strategic uncertainty.
America has been compelled to deploy regional assets — counter-ballistic missile radars and interceptors from South Korea and Marines from Okinawa — to the Middle East.
There, despite overwhelming U.S. naval and aerial superiority, Tehran caught Washington off-balance by weaponizing access to the Strait of Hormuz. Amid peace negotiations, Tehran remains battered but defiant, and the global economy reels from uncertainties over energy supply via the strait.
“The U.S. is just in chaos and if you are an ally of the U.S., you have to do what you have to do that is within your capabilities,” said Dan Pinkston, an international relations professor who teaches security-focused courses in Seoul. “Countries like South Korea are in a tough position.”
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Andrew Salmon
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