Protect College Sports Act passes Senate: What it means for athletes, industry

After a barrage of debates, delays, procedural votes, amendments, alterations and political bluster — don’t forget the political bluster — the landmark Protect College Sports Act easily passed the United States Senate on Monday at 7:01 p.m. Pacific.

Now comes the hard part: Ramming the bipartisan legislation, which has momentous consequences for the present and future of college athletics, through the House of Representatives.

If the PCSA survives its journey through the House, it likely will look substantially different from the version co-sponsored by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.).

The sweeping bill limits undergraduates to one penalty-free transfer, enforces five-years-to-play-five seasons eligibility standards, regulates agent activity, caps athlete compensation — an amendment to limit coaches’ salaries was narrowly rejected — and offers limited antitrust protections so the NCAA does not get sued on a near-daily basis.

“There are several things in this bill that are really important to enshrine into federal law at this time,” Cantwell said in a speech on the Senate floor before the vote. “Compensation on revenue sharing is probably the most important thing.”

Those issues are important within college sports, where university presidents, athletic directors and coaches hope to reclaim control over the player movement, roster spending, soaring operational costs and eligibility lawsuits that dominate the landscape.

But there is at least one section that matters deeply to fans from coast to coast and conference to conference: the so-called expansion provision, which directly impacts conference realignment and a potential super league.

The provision has evolved over time from an initial version, which effectively prevented the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC from expanding.

The iteration that greeted the Senate when it returned from summer recess earlier this month capped Power Four conference membership at 19 schools and forced universities wishing to change leagues to spend five years as an Independent.

Not surprisingly, those restrictions sat poorly with schools, particularly in the ACC, hoping to climb the conference food chain and gain entry into the Big Ten and SEC.

As a result, the bill approved Monday by a 77-22 vote featured another round of changes:

— Conferences are permitted a maximum of 20 members, leaving six combined spots in the Big Ten (two) and SEC (four) for the mass of schools with designs on moving up.

That list includes Miami, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina and Virginia (to name just five), along with the forever possibility of Notre Dame joining the Big Ten.

Meanwhile, schools in the Group of Six conferences, including the Pac-12, seemingly need major upheaval at the top tier to force the ACC and Big 12 into vulnerable positions where backfilling from below becomes necessary.

— Additionally, the probationary period — err, the Independent period that’s required of schools before changing conferences has been reduced from five years to three. And it sunsets entirely (disappears) after six years, likely sometime in late 2032 or early 2033.

That date is important given the broader dynamics that are likely to fuel a massive conference restructuring.

The media rights contracts that form the backbone of college sports begin to expire at the turn of the decade with the Big Ten (2030) first, then the Big 12 (2031), NCAA tournament (2032), College Football Playoff (2032), SEC (2034) and ACC (2036).

All of which means the 2031-33 window is the likely rupture point, and that coincides with the end of the mandatory Independent period dictated by the PCSA. (It’s not a coincidence.)

However, the expansion provision could change in the House — it could all change in the House — and that would send the PCSA back to the Senate. (Where is ‘Schoolhouse Rock’ when you need it!?)

Many industry observers are surprised the bill, which is supported by President Donald Trump, has survived the legislative process to this point.

But the House stands as a next-level challenge. Because the PCSA places limits on athlete pay, it lacks support from the Congressional Black Caucus.

Also, the SEC, which offered tepid support to the bill as it moved through the Senate Commerce Committee, could hold outsized sway given that the House Speaker (Mike Johnson) and Majority Leader (Steve Scalise) represent Louisiana.

There is also a calendar issue.

With midterm elections looming, the bill could be delayed until the lame duck session between the midterms and the holiday recess.

“Is this really what we should be spending our time on?” Sen. Cory Booker (D-New Jersey), a former Stanford football player who opposes the bill, asked on the floor before the Monday vote.

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And if the PCSA never becomes law?

Well, the SEC and Big Ten have been preparing for Plan B (as in: breakaway) for months.

Both conferences are considering the adoption of self-governing models in which they would leave the NCAA behind in order to create and enforce their own rules on matters like eligibility, tampering, transfers and roster compensation.

“If the bill can’t address some of the changes we need to make,” Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti said in July, “the first place you go is with our colleagues in the other conferences and the NCAA: How do we come together to make the necessary changes so we can give our athletic directors, coaches and student athletes a system that seems to be more sustainable?”

In a world of SEC and Big Ten self-governance, the competitive landscape would remain in place with nonconference games and postseason tournaments open to all major college teams. At least, that would be the case for the immediate future.

Whether the PCSA becomes law or dies on Capitol Hill, what happens in the 2030s is anyone’s guess.