Voters are upset. Even though median household income is up and poverty levels are down, consumer confidence fell in September to the lowest level since 2014.

A Republican president is facing his second midterm elections. His popularity is in the tank, in part because he took the country into a costly, unpopular war he thought would end quickly. Inflation is too high and federal spending under his party has exploded. The economy, while reasonably strong, faces headwinds. His party could be headed for a major defeat in November.