Why The Mandalorian And Grogu Doesn't Need Box Office Records To Be A Win For Star Wars
by Ryan Scott · /FilmIt's been nearly seven years, but at long last, a galaxy far, far away is returning to a theater near you. With "The Mandalorian and Grogu" releasing next weekend, it marks the first time that we've had a "Star Wars" movie on the big screen since 2019's "The Rise of Skywalker," which became the most complicated $1 billion box office hit in history. Fortunately for Disney and Lucasfilm, this latest entry in the storied franchise doesn't need to break any box office records to go down as a winner.
Directed by Jon Favreau, one of the key creatives behind the Disney+ series "The Mandalorian," the movie is currently projected to debut between $74 and $90 million domestically, per Box Office Theory. Mind you, that's just through Sunday. Monday, May 25, is Memorial Day, and once that holiday is factored in, the number could surpass $100 million on the higher end. Earlier tracking numbers had it doing more modestly, at $80 million or more (per Deadline) over the four-day holiday weekend.
"The Mandalorian and Grogu" carries a reported $165 million production budget, which is far lower than most other Disney-era "Star Wars" movies, all of which have been closer to $300 million. With that in mind, it could do "Solo: A Star Wars Story" numbers ($84 million opening/$393 million worldwide) and be okay. "Solo" is the only "Star Wars" movie to lose money for Disney, thanks in no small part to its inflated budget. This movie doesn't have the same issue.
Does Disney want its first "Star Wars" movie in six and a half years to make more than $400 million worldwide? Yes. But with an equivalent overseas turnout, it would currently be on pace to do over/under $500 million globally, depending on legs and reception.
Can The Mandalorian and Gogu make the jump from TV to the big screen?
"The Mandalorian and Grogu" takes place several years after the events of "Return of the Jedi and after the fall of the Empire on the new "Star Wars" timeline. Imperial warlords are still scattered throughout the galaxy, and the New Republic enlists the help of legendary Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his young apprentice Grogu, aka Baby Yoda. Sigourney Weaver ("Aliens") also stars.
"The Mandalorian" was very popular and, through its first two seasons, was very well received on Disney+. Season 3 took a perceived dip in quality, but, by and large, "Star Wars" fans, particularly younger fans, love Grogu to pieces. Hollywood's biggest hits of 2025 were all family-friendly movies, such as "Lilo & Stitch" and "A Minecraft Movie." Similarly, "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" is the biggest movie of 2026 thus far. There's something to be said about this movie going for the family crowd, perhaps more than any other "Star Wars" movie in recent memory.
The question is: can these characters successfully make the transition from TV to the big screen? Or will it suffer a bit from audiences saying, "We have 'The Mandalorian' at home" en masse? It's a little hard to say, but an over/under $90 million opening is big by 2026 Hollywood standards yet relatively small by "Star Wars" standards.
However, 2002's "Attack of the Clones" set a low bar for "Star Wars" at the box office at that time, yet it opened to $80 million domestically and legged out to $656 million worldwide in its original run. One imagines Disney would be quite happy with similar numbers here.
The Mandalorian and Grogu doesn't have to make $1 billion to be successful
The point is, "Star Wars" movies during the Disney era have had to shoulder a lot of weight and generally had to be gigantic, all-encompassing, global hits to be viewed as successful. Everything sort of lived in the shadow of "The Force Awakens," making $2 billion in 2015. "The Mandalorian and Grogu" doesn't have to make $1 billion to be successful. Not even close.
For one, a $165 million net budget is relatively low by modern standards, as Hollywood has had a budget problem that needs reckoning with for some time. Jon Favreau got the job done here for a reasonable amount, relatively speaking. Beyond that, the sheer number of Baby Yoda toys this movie stands to sell will make bank for Disney in the long run. This movie has far more merchandise upside than "Solo" or even "Rogue One" did; that much is certain.
"Rogue One" turned two lines of text into a $1 billion box office hit, which is pretty incredible, but, with all due respect, Cassian Andor action figures aren't flying off the shelves quite like Grogu plushies. For "Star Wars" as a larger, money-making concern, this movie makes sense. It certainly makes more financial sense than "The Mandalorian" Season 4 would have. It's going to help legitimize these characters as "real" characters in the "Star Wars" galaxy for casual fans. A "Star Wars" movie is still a bigger deal to the masses than a TV show.
All that said, if the reception is good and these numbers hold, this movie is set up for success. Not "Star Wars" success as we knew it in the 2010s, but success nonetheless.
"The Mandalorian and Grogu" hits theaters on May 22, 2026.