How High Can Spider-Man: Brand New Day Fly?

Sorry, Kevin Feige, but it’s true: Marvel hasn’t been doing great lately. Thunderbolts*, Fantastic Four: First Steps, and Captain America: Brave New World all made under $300 million domestically by the end of their theatrical runs, with Thunderbolts* bringing up the rear with $190 million. For reference, in 2019, Avengers: Endgame made $357 million domestically … in its opening weekend. Luckily, they’ve got an ace up their sleeves this weekend with the return of Peter Parker. There is no more dependable superhero in all of entertainment than Spider-Man, and the Tom Holland–starring Spider-Man: Brand New Day is shaping up to be a return to glory for the MCU. It’s currently tracking to debut with $260 million to $280 million, per Variety, which would rank it among the largest opening weekends of all time. Let’s discuss just how high that spiderweb might get him.

Scaling a bedroom wall

For Spider-Man: Brand New Day to count as a win in comparison to other recent MCU properties, it only needs to hit a smooth $155 million. That would make it the highest-grossing opening weekend of any Marvel property since 2024, and it would be the second-best opening weekend for a Spider-Man property ever. Still, it would be a shock to see the movie underperform like this relative to expectations. Consider this achievement locked.

Scaling a gymnasium

If Brand New Day makes at least $215 million domestically in its opening weekend, then it would hit a very special signifier: It would be the best opening weekend for an MCU movie since the last Spider-Man. In 2024, Deadpool & Wolverine scored $211 million in its opening-weekend box office, which was a huge win for the Deadpool character. Beating that film would just emphasize how important Spider-Man is to the overall MCU.

Scaling a midtown high-rise

The most recent live-action Spider-Man film, Spider-Man: No Way Home, scored $260 million domestically in its opening weekend. If Brand New Day hits the current predictions, then it absolutely has a chance to knock No Way Home off the top spot. For Spider-Man movies, that is. If it wants to reign over the MCU, it will have to significantly overperform.

Scaling the Empire State Building

For Brand New Day to beat the all-time MCU record, it has to scale a skyscraper. Endgame’s $357 million opening weekend is not just the best MCU opening weekend of all time, it’s the best domestic opening weekend for any movie ever. To beat it, Brand New Day will need to overperform to the tune of $100 million. Can he do it? Don’t underestimate the kid, but this is a pretty tall skyscraper to swing from.