Number of female prisoners expected to surge by 63 percent over next decade

The number of women serving time in prison is expected to surge 63 percent over the next decade, due to stronger punishments for theft.

That's compared to a predicted 35 percent increase in the total prison population.

The Ministry of Justice's annual projections report released on Friday said more women would be behind bars due to a proposed new law that would increase penalties for theft.

It expected the women's prison population would jump from 839 in February this year, to 1370 by June 2036.

"Recent policy changes, most notably amendments to theft penalties in the Crimes Amendment Bill, are expected to have a proportionally larger impact on the number of women entering remand than on men," it said.

"The higher growth projected for the women's remand population is also based on inflow trends, with women's remand inflow currently 28 percent above the 2020 peak, compared with just 3 percent higher for men."

Ministry sector insights manager Rebecca Parish said data published in March last year showed theft was the most frequent offence committed by women remanded in custody in 2023/24 (23 percent of all women remanded).

"As such, amendments to theft penalties are likely to have a proportionally larger impact on women," she said.

"The increase in the women's remand inflow since 2020 was primarily driven by increases in theft, burglary, and assault. In comparison, men's remand inflow had proportionately smaller increases for these offence types."

Tougher sentences proposed for lower level-theft

The Crimes Amendment Bill, which has been to select committee but not yet been passed into law, creates a new offence for theft that is done in an offensive, insulting or disorderly manner. It would only apply if the value of the property was $2000 or less, and carried a maximum penalty of two years' imprisonment.

The proposed new law would also shift other theft penalty thresholds. Currently, people could be imprisoned for seven years for stealing property worth more than $1000; one year for property worth between $500 and $1000; and three months for property valued less than $500.

Under the proposed new law, the seven year maximum penalty would apply for theft of property worth more than $2000. But anything less could carry a one-year sentence.

Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith said the ministry's projections reflected the government's work to "fix the basics in law and/order" and ensure New Zealanders felt safe. That included new crimes and tougher penalties.

Goldsmith said the government wanted fewer inmates, but only after crime victim numbers dropped.

There were 49,000 fewer victims of violent crime than when the coalition came into government, and it wanted to continue driving those numbers down, Goldsmith said.

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