Sultanas up, avocados down: Here's how food prices are really moving

Food prices were flat in April, and up by less compared to the year earlier than they were in March.

But beneath that headline, there's been significant variation across food items.

Here's what's getting cheaper, what's dearer, how you might be able to save and where to next for food prices.

What's cheaper?

Looking at annual averages 10 years ago compared to modern prices, not a lot is cheaper.

Of the 147 detailed prices that Stats NZ tracks, only seven have recorded drops over 10 years.

Avocados were down 22 percent from a decade ago.

Infometrics chief economist Brad Olsen said that was largely due to supply. "There's been much higher supply and much more challenging demand conditions in recent times, where there just hasn't been as much demand.

"If we were having this conversation as well a decade ago, we probably would have been rejoicing at the fact that surely with low avocado prices, you know, housing must be so much more affordable.

"Anyone saying 'your avocado on toast is contributing to your inability to buy a house' was wrong to start with, but it's even more wrong at the moment when avocado prices have come back."

Second was onions, down 7 percent from $2.13 a kilogram to $1.99, on average.

A 700g bag of frozen prawns dropped 3 percent over 10 years, and a packaged pasta-and-sauce meal was down 1 percent.

Over just the past year, the biggest drops were in cucumbers, down 23 percent, olive oil, down 21 percent, the packaged pasta meals, down 16 percent, carrots down 14 percent and cauliflower down 11 percent.

What's got dearer?

Everything else.

Over 10 years, the biggest increases in prices were for eggs, butter, sultanas, canned pink salmon, kiwifruit, bread, corned beef, cabbage, grapes, and fish and chips.

Eggs were up 151 percent over 10 years.

"That's because we've changed how we produce eggs in New Zealand, we've got rid of battery and caged options and moved towards more free-range options, which has increased the cost of operating," Olsen said.

Butter was up 143 percent.

ANZ economist Matt Dilly said butter prices had fallen in the past few months but were still high.

"Global supplies were very tight from mid-2024 to late 2025, thanks to strong demand and poor weather in every dairy exporting country except New Zealand. We are starting to see butter prices come down as butter production has increased in New Zealand, Europe, and the US.

"But you'll also notice a step change in pricing between 2006-2016 and 2016-present. This reflects shifting consumer preferences away from vegetable oils and toward butter for health reasons."

Sultanas lifted in price by 116 percent. Dilly said most came from Turkey and Australia.

"Turkey is the largest producer and exporter, and they've been hit with bad weather last year. This has pushed production down and prices up. Hopefully prices will fall over the next few months."

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said there had been significant rain and frost damage to Turkish crops. "Poor harvest have also been an issue fro things like coffee and chocolate prices in recent times."

Salmon was up 101 percent, kiwifruit 93 percent, bread 90 percent, corned beef 87 percent and cabbage 78 percent.

Olsen said kiwifruit was driven by strong demand and challenging harvest conditions.

Dilly said kiwifruit was highly seasonal.

"Right now we are transitioning from imported Northern Hemisphere fruit to domestic fruit. That's still ongoing, so retail prices will continue to drop as the harvest continues. Red and Gold are mostly picked, but Green is still underway. However, prices are going up year over year, if you just look at the lowest prices of each season. Some of that will be due to an increase in orchard gate prices in recent years, especially for green kiwifruit."

Corned beef was likely to be because fewer cattle had been available for processing, Olsen said. He said other meat had also increased in price, but corned beef was cheaper to being with so the proportional increase was higher.

A serve of fish and chips increased from $6.09 on average in the year ending April 2016 to $10.77 this year.

Olsen said there was pressure on fish generally and fish fillets were them most expensive single item on a per unit basis.

"Over time as well, you've seen increases in potato costs and the cost of your cooking oil and everything else… energy cost increases, you've seen packaging cost increases, and probably most importantly, increases to the minimum wage over time, which generally affects those in hospitality a whole lot more."

In the past year, the biggest price increases have been in dried apricots, up 56 percent, courgettes up 42 percent, avocado up 36 percent, sliced white bread up 35 percent, beans up 26 percent and roasting lamb up 21 percent.

How can we save money?

Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub calculated people could save money on things like school lunches by making swaps.

By switching from ham to peanut butter for sandwiches, school policy permitting, and muesli bars to muesli, they could save $5.10 a week on school lunches, he said.

A Sunday roast for four people would cost $22.24 per person using beef sirloin but only $8.17 for roast chicken.

Where to from here?

HIgher fuel prices are expected to push up food prices, but that has not shown through in the data yet.

Olsen said that was what he expected. "The fact that diesel costs have increased by basically double in the last two months - most people's pricing structures don't adjust that quickly themselves. We do expect they're coming. We just think here's a bit of a delay or a lag as those cost changes come through the supply chain."

DIlly agreed it was too soon to seen an impact.

He said would take three to six months for price changes to go from the point of origin to retail, depending on the product.

"Some costs will be passed on more quickly than others, and some costs will be absorbed in the supply chain before it reaches the consumer. We are keeping an eye on it, but wouldn't expect to see a noticeable change for another few months."

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the impact might not show up until the latter part of the year.

"Higher costs for fuels and fertilizers will push up production costs here and abroad. The usual delay with growing cycles and shipping means those higher costs take several months to pass through to food prices, and that's compounded by shipping times for items we import.

"So, while the April food price figures were a little on the soft side of expectations, we're likely to see more pronounced upward pressure on food prices over the coming months."

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