Power lines: where we're cutting it fine in renewable power transition race

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is responsible for planning the nation's shift to renewables. Last week AEMO released its 2025 report, an updated roadmap showing how Australia might achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The report expresses concern over delays in the rollout of transmission lines and construction cost blowouts.

If high voltage transmission lines aren't available, there's no point in ramping up investment in the solar and wind generators planned for renewable energy zones (REZs) around the nation. NSW has five REZs. The Hunter-Central Coast is one. Just to our west is the Central West-Orana REZ. To our north is the New England REZ. AEMO expects these three REZs to host generation capacity of over 25 gigawatts (GW) by 2050, the equivalent of nine Eraring power stations. The Hunter Transmission Project (HTP) links these and metropolitan users. The 500-volt HTP will comprise 70 to 80-metre towers and traverse over 110km of defence land, private properties and state forests.

When announced in November 2023, operation of the HTP was planned for early 2028. Now AEMO says it will be delayed until November 2029. Nothing has been said yet about cost blowouts, but they must be in the hundreds of millions. Not surprisingly, potential investors in the REZs are sitting on their hands until there is certainty about when the HTP will be up and running.

A problem for the Hunter is that our region's interests might be swept aside in a rush to complete the HTP. The environmental impact statement (EIS) is still under consideration. In theory, the public should have the time to respond to the Department of Planning's assessment of it. But under special rules for planning approvals for transmission lines, an independent planning panel won't be convened. Instead, the NSW minister for planning has sole responsibility for an approval decision -- remembering that the project proponent is EnergyCo, controlled by the NSW energy minister. Public scrutiny is very constrained.

Already we know there are problems with the HTP's development. Hunter landholders are angry. Those directly in the pathway of the transmission lines say that acquisition offers fail to compensate for the real value of their properties. A problem here has been inconsistent messaging from EnergyCo staff, many being contractors with little wriggle room in negotiations. Other landholders will be affected by months, perhaps years, of heavy construction activity, yet they are in the dark about actual plans, impacts and compensation. The EIS omits this detail.

Then there are the substantial environmental impacts, highlighted in an EIS submission by the NSW National Parks Association. Therein, the association says the HTP, as proposed, will "irreversibly fragment a relatively intact natural area" in the Hunter. Moreover, the association expresses grave concern over the lack of detail as to how biodiversity offset schemes will be used. Will the government simply discharge its environmental stewardship by buying offset credits from a broker, thereby bypassing any genuine environmental restoration projects located within the Hunter?

And then there is the absence of a community and employment benefits scheme, compensation to the region for hosting this giant infrastructure project. Unlike biodiversity schemes which are funded by levies on electricity bills, there is no funding source for a community benefits scheme for the HTP and, thus far, the NSW government has been silent on the matter.

So, AEMO will pull the whip on the HTP. There will be growing pressure within various NSW government departments to accelerate approval processes. At risk are proper attention to the EIS process; the opportunity to scrutinise the decisions of ministers armed with powers to bypass independent assessment panels; fair deals for affected landholders; and time to devise Hunter-based projects that genuinely address environmental damage and provide community benefits.

Phillip O'Neill is a community member of the HTP's regional reference group, and emeritus professor of economic geography at Western Sydney University.