Breitbart Business Digest: Latest Inflation Report Vindicates Trump, Embarrasses His Critics

Inflation Refused to Follow the Legacy Media’s Phony Affordability Narrative

Inflation Finally Falls Below Bidenflation Crisis Levels

President Trump tipped his hand a bit on Wednesday night, hinting that the inflation report issued Thursday morning by the Department of Labor was going to be good news.

“Tonight, after 11 months, our border is secure, inflation has stopped, wages are up, prices are down, our nation is strong, America is respected, and our country is back, stronger than ever before,” Trump said in his prime-time address to the nation.

President Donald Trump delivers a prime-time address to the nation on Dec. 17, 2025, at the White House. (Doug Mills/Getty Images)

Economists had forecast inflation would rise in November. The estimates for the year-over-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) among economists surveyed by Econoday ranged from 2.9 percent to 3.2 percent, with the media forecast coming in at 3.1 percent. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was forecast in a very tight range of 3.0 percent to 3.1 percent.

The legacy media fact checkers waged several hours of war against the president’s claims about inflation, pointing out that in September, the year-over-year inflation figure had come in at three percent and had been rising since May. Many were quick to blame the Trump administration’s tariff policies for the increase in prices, even though tariffed categories like durable goods were up by just 1.8 percent through September while core services were up three percent.

Which all would have proved extremely embarrassing several hours later to anyone not imbued with an inhuman immunity to shame. Better-informed reporters concerned about their reputations for accuracy might have recognized that the president receives important economic reports the afternoon before their release. So, when Trump was touting his administration’s victories over inflation, he almost certainly knew something the reporters did not.

The rule in legacy media, however, is never to give Trump the benefit of the doubt or to listen closely to what he says for insight. Every claim Trump makes is treated as a species of deceit or self-aggrandizement. Everything is a false claim or exaggerated or without evidence.

Come Thursday morning, however, Trump’s declarations of significant progress on inflation looked prescient. The consumer price index rose just 2.7 percent over the 12 months through November, the Department of Labor said. Core CPI rose by just 2.6 percent, the slowest pace of inflation since March 2021. In other words, the pace of inflation is finally down below where it has been throughout the Bidenflation crisis era.

The decision of the Democrats to shut down the government in October and keep it closed through early November meant that much of the data that would have been collected for October’s CPI went uncollected. As a result, there was no October report, and the November report does not include the standard month-to-month inflation figure. Instead, we have two-month inflation figures, measuring what happened to prices between September and November.

These are, for the most part, very good news. The seasonally-adjusted two-month change in overall CPI was an increase of just 0.2 percent, which you can pencil in as a gain of around 0.1 percent per month. Core CPI was also up by just 0.2 percent.

If we annualize the three-month growth of CPI, prices are up at a 2.1 percent pace. The six-month annualized rate of inflation is just 2.8 percent. For core CPI, the three-month annualized figure is 1.6 percent and the six-month annualized is 2.6 percent. If we measure inflation just during the Trump presidency, starting in February, we get an annualized rate of 2.2 percent. These numbers indicate that there is collectively very little—if any—excess inflation over the Fed’s two percent target. To paraphrase President Trump, excess inflation has effectively stopped.

Grocery prices, one of the most salient for public sentiment about the economy, are up just 1.9 percent compared with a year ago. That the lowest rate of grocery price inflation since February.

The November report is also the latest blow to the theory of tariff-led inflation. Core goods, which exclude energy, have seen prices rise just 1.4 percent from a year ago. Apparel prices are up just 0.2 percent. New vehicle prices are up 0.6 percent. Durable goods prices are up 1.5 percent. Appliances are up 0.5 percent, and major appliances are up 1.2 percent.

This is not to say that tariffs aren’t raising any prices. They likely are raising prices for some things—furniture prices are up three percent—but these price increases are offset elsewhere. Tariffs—when they aren’t absorbed by foreign producers or U.S. importers—tend to move relative prices rather than broad prices levels.

Suddenly, Economists Don’t Believe the Data

Many economists aligned with Democratic politics or opposed to Trump’s tariffs were quick to point out that there may be flaws in the data due to the shutdown. They pointed out that the government had to impute some of what happened in October and even November. Some other prices were collected later in the month, which might have the effect of distorting the index because merchants may have discounted more heavily as we moved toward the holidays. Rents and other retail prices often are lower toward the end of the month when landlords and merchants try to clear inventory.

All of that is a bit rich considering that it was the shutdown engineered by their Democrat allies that led to the data gaps. What’s more, there’s good reason to suspect that if the inflation report had come in worse than expected, much of this skepticism would have been swept aside. After all, analysts who were making forecasts knew all about the data issues ahead of time—and this report still came in better than expected.

And if we zero in on indexes likely to be less distorted by shutdown data issues, the picture is not any different. Core goods less food, energy, and used cars were up just 1.1 percent year-over-year. Services less shelter were up 3.5 percent, the slowest rate for this subindex since May.

The low inflation numbers also mean that rising wages go further. In the 12-months through November, the median weekly earnings of Americans employed in the private sector rose 3.5 percent, which means they beat inflation by 0.8 percent. For blue-collar Americans, wages are up 4.2 percent year-over-year, creating a real wage gain of 1.5 percent. Those real wage gains are likely to go a long way in assuaging affordability concerns, no matter how frequently the media raise the alarm over tariffs or Democrat economists tell the public to ignore the data in favor of vibes.