El Nino is just 0.02°C away from turning into 'Godzilla' the strongest ever

El Nino has intensified sharply across the tropical Pacific and is nearing record strength. The strengthening system is raising risks of global heat, drought, flooding and storm disruption.

In Short

• Nino 3.4 readings rose from 1.5°C in May-July to 3°C
• Subsurface Pacific waters exceeded 8°C above average, adding fuel for intensification
• WMO expects the event to persist until February 2027 with near certainty

El Nino is rapidly intensifying across the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures in the key Nio 3.4 monitoring region now around 3°C above average, bringing the climate phenomenon within just 0.02°C of the benchmark for the strongest El Nino on record, according to the latest data.

The extraordinary warming has raised concerns over further disruption to global rainfall and temperature patterns in the months ahead.

The Nino 3.4 region, which covers a large section of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, is one of the principal indicators used to track El Nino. The latest observations show that the event has strengthened sharply in recent months.

The WMO said El Nino is now firmly established and is expected to intensify further, potentially reaching very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026.

The acceleration has been striking.

The Nino 3.4 index averaged about +1.5°C above normal during May-July and around +2°C in July, before weekly values climbed further through August.

Exceptionally warm water is also building beneath the Pacific surface, with subsurface temperatures in some areas more than 8°C above average during July and early August.

That reservoir of heat could provide additional energy for the event to strengthen.

The World Meteorological Organisation has put unusually high confidence behind its forecast. Its latest update gives an almost 100% likelihood that El Nino will persist through February 2027, with no return to neutral or La Nia conditions expected during the forecast period.

WMO's seasonal models project the average Nino 3.4 anomaly at about 3.6°C during September-November 2026, with the intensification trajectory expected to peak around November-December.

Such an event matters because El Nino is not confined to the Pacific. Changes in the tropical Pacific's ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation can reorganise weather patterns thousands of kilometres away, affecting rainfall, drought, heat and storm activity across different parts of the world. WMO has warned of heightened risks of flooding, drought and extreme heat as the event strengthens.

The warming is also occurring against a backdrop of exceptionally warm global oceans, potentially amplifying some regional impacts.

However, calling this definitively the strongest El Nino ever recorded requires caution.

Historical rankings depend on the dataset, baseline period and indicator used. Research has found that the strongest historical events can be difficult to distinguish statistically using Nio indices alone because observational uncertainties overlap.

What is clear is that the world is entering an unusually powerful El Nino episode.

The WMO has therefore urged national meteorological and hydrological services to strengthen preparedness and early-warning measures.

With the Pacific still warming and the event expected to intensify, the coming months could provide a major test of how effectively countries can prepare for climate extremes driven by a rapidly changing ocean-atmosphere system.

- Ends