Why crude oil prices could stay high even after the West Asia war ends

Crude oil prices have surged, supply remains tight, and infrastructure damage could take months to repair. Even if the war ends, the impact on global oil markets may linger longer.

In Short

• Crude oil prices surged 50-60% since West Asia war began
• IEA estimates 8-10 million barrels per day disrupted
• Oil prices remain firmly above $100

More than a month into the West Asia war, crude oil markets are no longer reacting to risk alone. The disruption is now visible in prices, supply and trade.

Brent crude, which was trading around $60–70 a barrel before the conflict, has climbed past $100 and is holding near $110. That is a rise of roughly 50–60% in a matter of weeks.

Part of that is down to supply. Estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggest that 8 to 10 million barrels per day of crude oil has been disrupted or taken offline since the conflict escalated.

But the more important shift is not just in production. It is in the system.

Nearly 20% of global crude oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That route remains under strain, with Iran holding the Strait in a near chokehold, even as Donald Trump’s expletive-laden demands to reopen it grow louder.

Tankers are being rerouted, shipments are delayed, and shipping and insurance costs have risen sharply.

Even where crude oil is still being produced, it is not reaching markets the way it used to.

That is what is keeping prices elevated.

BIGGEST OIL SHOCK IN DECADES

The scale of the disruption is already drawing concern from global institutions. The IEA has described it as one of the largest oil supply shocks in recent history, with flows through key routes falling sharply.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the duration of the conflict and the extent of infrastructure damage will determine how long the impact lasts, but in most scenarios, the outcome points to higher prices and slower growth.

For now, emergency reserves are cushioning part of the shock. The IEA has coordinated one of the largest releases of strategic stockpiles in recent years. But these reserves are designed to smooth short-term disruptions, not replace lost supply.

The bigger issue is what comes after the war.

NO EASY FIX TO OIL CRISIS

Several oil facilities across the Gulf have been damaged or taken offline. Restarting production is only one part of the recovery. Rebuilding infrastructure and restoring supply routes is another.

Based on past disruptions tracked by the IMF and industry studies, restoring full capacity can take months, and in some cases years.

At the same time, the global system has limited room to absorb shocks. Spare capacity within Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is concentrated in a few countries, leaving little buffer if disruptions persist.

This is why prices may not fall quickly even after the conflict ends.

In earlier oil shocks, prices eased once supply returned. This time, the recovery itself may be slower. Infrastructure damage, higher logistics costs and tighter spare capacity could keep supply constrained well beyond the duration of the war.

The effects are already spreading beyond energy.

Higher crude oil prices are pushing up transport and freight costs. Fertiliser prices, which depend heavily on energy inputs, are rising, feeding into food inflation. Sectors such as aviation, chemicals and manufacturing are beginning to feel the pressure.

For oil-importing economies such as India, the impact is more direct. Higher crude prices widen trade deficits, add to inflation and put pressure on currencies.

And for the global economy, the risk is not just higher prices, but prolonged pressure.

The market is still adjusting to the shock.

Crude oil prices have already risen sharply. Supply has been disrupted, and key trade routes remain under strain. Emergency reserves are offering limited relief, while damage to infrastructure could take months, or even years, to fully repair.

Taken together, these factors suggest that even if the war ends, the disruption to crude oil markets may take much longer to ease.

- Ends