Sensex, Nifty today: Stock market to crash or rise after 2nd hike in petrol, diesel prices?

Markets are set for a mildly positive open even after a second fuel price hike in a week. Hopes of easing tensions around Iran are offering support, but high crude prices and volatility are keeping traders cautious.

In Short

• Markets may open marginally higher on Tuesday amid cautious investor mood
• Petrol and diesel prices hiked again, impacting inflation and market sentiment
• Foreign investors bought shares worth Rs 2,813.69 crore, supporting the market

Stock markets are likely to open marginally higher on Tuesday, although investors are expected to remain cautious after petrol and diesel prices were increased for the second time in a week amid rising global crude oil prices.

GIFT Nifty futures were trading around 23,656 at 8:45 am, indicating that the NSE Nifty50 could open slightly above Monday’s closing level of 23,649.95.

Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said Indian markets may open slightly positive due to easing geopolitical concerns, but the overall market setup still remains cautious.

“Indian equity markets are expected to open on a mildly positive note, with Gift Nifty trading at 23,674, up by 57 points,” Shah said.

He said reports that Trump delayed possible military action against Iran after requests from Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE helped improve global sentiment.

However, Shah warned that high crude oil prices and elevated volatility continue to remain key concerns for markets.

The expected positive opening comes after US President Donald Trump signalled that a possible nuclear deal with Iran could still happen, raising hopes that tensions in West Asia may ease.

Trump said he had called off a planned attack on Tehran after Iran sent a peace proposal and added that there was now a “very good chance” of reaching a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme.

The comments improved global market sentiment slightly, although investors remain worried because the situation in West Asia continues to remain uncertain.

PETROL, DIESEL PRICE HIKE BACK IN FOCUS

Markets are also watching the impact of another fuel price increase in India.

Petrol and diesel prices were raised by around 90 paise per litre on Tuesday. This is the second hike within a week as the government and oil marketing companies continue to face pressure from rising global crude oil prices.

India had already increased fuel prices recently after global crude prices surged due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia and concerns around supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher fuel prices are important for stock markets because they can increase inflation, raise transportation costs and affect household spending.

The benchmark Sensex and Nifty have already fallen around 7% since the war began in late February.

FOREIGN INVESTORS TURN BUYERS

Despite recent volatility, foreign institutional investors returned as buyers on Monday.

According to provisional data, foreign investors purchased Indian shares worth Rs 2,813.69 crore.

This provided some support to the market after weeks of heavy foreign selling linked to rising crude oil prices, rupee weakness and geopolitical uncertainty.

ADANI GROUP STOCKS MAY REMAIN IN FOCUS

Shares linked to the Adani Group are also likely to remain in focus on Tuesday.

The US administration reportedly moved to dismiss criminal fraud charges against billionaire industrialist Gautam Adani while also settling alleged Iran sanctions-related violations involving one of the group’s companies.

Investors are expected to closely track the market reaction to these developments.

NIFTY STILL SHOWING WEAK MOMENTUM

According to Shah, the Nifty recovered from sharp intraday losses on Monday and ended marginally higher by 0.03%.

Even though the market recovered slightly, technical indicators still suggest weakness.

“Momentum indicators and oscillators remained weak, signalling continuation of short-term bearish undertones,” Shah said.

He added that India VIX, often called the market fear gauge, rose 4.47% to 19.63, indicating continued nervousness among investors.

Shah said technical indicators such as RSI and MACD continue to favour bears, suggesting that selling pressure has not fully disappeared.

According to him, Nifty is likely to trade within the 23,250–23,850 range in the near term.

“A decisive move above 23,850 may open the path toward the crucial resistance zone of 24,000–24,100,” he said.

On the downside, Shah warned that if Nifty slips below 23,400, selling pressure could increase further and drag the index toward 23,250 and then 23,100.

BANK NIFTY ALSO REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE

The banking index also remains under pressure despite some recovery from lower levels.

Bank Nifty closed 0.3% lower on Monday but managed to recover from sharp intraday weakness.

Shah said the banking index formed a bullish candle with a long lower wick, indicating buying interest at lower levels.

However, he added that Bank Nifty still trades below important moving averages, showing weakness in the broader structure.

Immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed around 52,500–52,200, while resistance remains near 54,400–54,700.

MARKET TO REMAIN VOLATILE

Analysts believe markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming days as investors track:

• crude oil prices,
• developments in West Asia,
• movement in the rupee,
• and global investor sentiment.

While hopes of a possible Iran nuclear deal have improved sentiment slightly, elevated fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to remain major risks for Indian equities.

- Ends