UN sounds El Nino alarm: Weak monsoon, food inflation, water stress for India

The UN weather agency has warned that El Nino is likely to develop in the second half of 2026, raising concern over India's monsoon. Forecasts of below normal rain, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and higher fertiliser costs could increase pressure on farms and food prices.

In Short

• WMO sees 80 per cent chance of El Nino forming now.
• India's 2026 monsoon may fall near 90 per cent average.
• Weak rains could lift food prices and deepen water stress.

The United Nations has flagged 2026 as a high risk year, warning that El Nino is likely to build through the second half and collide with record heat, costly food and a strained world.

For India and its neighbours, the agency calls it a compound crisis, one that reaches well beyond the weather.

WHAT EXACTLY IS EL NINO

El Nino is the warm phase of a natural climate see-saw called the El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Every few years the central and eastern Pacific Ocean heats up more than usual, shifting rainfall and winds worldwide and often leaving Asia drier.

The World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather body, puts the chance of El Nino forming between June and August 2026 at 80 per cent, with a better than 90 per cent chance it lasts into November. Most models suggest a moderate event, though a strong one is possible.

WHY INDIA'S MONSOON IS AT RISK

India's worry is the monsoon, the four-month rainy season that delivers most of its water.

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, meeting in Male on April 28, expects below-normal rain across much of the region, with India near 90 per cent of the long period average, the benchmark for a normal year.

That could be the weakest monsoon in a decade, squeezing kharif crops like paddy, draining reservoirs and pulling down groundwater, the water stored underground that wells depend on.

THE OTHER OCEAN DECIDES

El Nino does not act alone. Scientists are watching the Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, the temperature gap between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.

A positive IOD is forecast for later this year, and from Myanmar to Pakistan it may shape rainfall even more than El Nino. A strong positive phase could deepen dry spells.

FROM FIELDS TO FOOD BILLS

Smaller harvests of rice, wheat and pulses tend to lift prices, and the strain is sharper because of conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, a sea route carrying much of the world's fertiliser.

Since February, urea prices have climbed roughly 80 per cent to record highs. The UN calls this an economic risk channel as serious as the climate one.

THE HUMAN TOLL

Heat and water stress carry health costs too. The agency warns of more heat stroke, mosquito-borne illnesses like dengue and malaria, waterborne disease and malnutrition, with young children, pregnant women, the elderly and the poor most exposed.

Falling farm incomes can also push children out of school, especially girls.

THE WINDOW TO PREPARE

The message is blunt but hopeful. The danger is real, but the time to act is open.

Storing water, sharing drought-resistant seeds, backing farmers, building grain stocks and widening heat action plans could blunt the worst.

- Ends