Pak-partner Turkey buys record diesel from India. What's fueling the change?

Turkey, a key strategic partner of Pakistan, imported a record volume of diesel from India in August 2026, marking its highest level from New Delhi in years. As Russian supplies fall and Middle East routes face disruption, India has emerged as a crucial alternative fuel supplier for Recep Tayyip Erdogan-led Turkey.

In Short

• Turkey has largely depended on Russia for its refined oil needs
• Moscow had to stop refined oil supply after Ukraine hit refineries
• India emerged as saviour for Pakistan's ally amid vulnerabilities

Turkey, a key strategic partner of Pakistan, imported a record volume of diesel from India in August 2026, marking its highest level from New Delhi in years. As Russian supplies fall and Middle East routes face disruption, India has emerged as a crucial alternative fuel supplier for Recep Tayyip Erdogan-led Turkey.

Turkey is turning to India for diesel at a time when its traditional fuel lifeline, Russia, is running dry. In August, Turkish imports of Indian diesel surged to a record level, even as Russian supplies slumped sharply, forcing the Pakistan ally to seek fuel beyond its traditional Russian supplier.

Turkey has emerged as one of Pakistan's closest strategic partners and strongly backed Islamabad during Operation Sindoor in 2025. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan-led Republic of Turkey has also formed a Nato-like strategic defence partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan titled Mecca Defence Alliance.

Yet, amid a wider disruption in global oil flows, Turkish buyers are now sourcing record volumes of diesel from Indian refiners. The numbers highlight just how dramatic the change has been.

Turkey imported more than 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Indian diesel in August, according to commodities data firm Kpler, while imports from the US touched about 90,000 bpd. Both were the highest monthly levels recorded in Kpler's data going back to 2017, Reuters reported.

At the same time, Turkish imports of Russian diesel fell to around 80,000 bpd in August, from more than 200,000 bpd in earlier months this year.

"Surprise", Dallas-based energy economist Anas Alhajji posted on X, highlighting the scale of India's rise. "India's petroleum product exports to Turkey hit a record high in August — nearly a 5x jump year-on-year. Reliance shipped most of it."

The immediate trigger for this shift in priorities is a squeeze on Turkey's traditional sources of diesel. Russia has restricted diesel exports after Ukrainian attacks disrupted its refineries and domestic fuel supplies, while war-related damage to Middle Eastern refineries and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have further tightened the market.

The mounting US pressure on countries buying Russian oil might have also played a role in the changing preference of Ankara.

WHY TURKEY IS TURNING TO INDIA FOR PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

Russia has historically dominated Turkey's diesel supply. In 2025, Russia accounted for about 85% of Turkey's diesel imports, supplying roughly 281,000 bpd, according to Turkey's Energy Market Regulatory Authority data (EMRA).

That dependence has suddenly become a vulnerability for the Republic of Turkey led by Erdogan.

Russia imposed restrictions on diesel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted its refineries and domestic fuel availability. Reuters reported that Turkey's Russian diesel imports fell to around 100,000 bpd in July and about 80,000 bpd in August, pushing Russia's share of Turkey's diesel imports down to roughly 20% in August.

The alternative supply pool is itself under pressure.

Middle Eastern refineries have suffered war-related disruptions, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been affected by the wider Iran conflict. The global diesel markets are facing an unusually tight supply situation, with disruptions in Russia and the Middle East reducing the availability of refined fuels.

This situation has made Turkey's refiners and traders look further afield for options. And the one solution to this was India.

INDIA'S RECORD DIESEL SHIPMENTS TO TURKEY

Kpler's data, cited by Reuters, put India's diesel shipments to Turkey at more than 120,000 bpd in August, the highest monthly level in its records since 2017. UK-based data analytics and market insights firm, Energy Aspects, estimates a lower figure of about 74,000 bpd, but even that would represent India's strongest shipment level to Turkey since 2022.

The long-term trade data show why the August surge stands out.

India exported 562,421 tonnes of diesel to Turkey in 2025, making it Turkey's third-largest supplier after Russia and Egypt. In 2023, India's diesel exports to Turkey stood at 3,97,761 tonnes, compared with 3,30,990 tonnes in 2022.

The 2021 figure was much higher at 2.71 million tonnes, indicating that India's relationship with the Turkish fuel market has fluctuated sharply rather than moving on a straight upward trajectory. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 also affected Turkey's large-scale purchases of Russian oil. Following Western sanctions, Russia redirected its crude and refined petroleum exports to other markets at discounted rates. Retrospective data on Turkey's imports shows that its share of Russian oil purchases surged after 2022.

The current shift of Turkey is not limited to India. The US also recorded a monthly high, shipping about 90,000 bpd to Turkey in August, according to Kpler data. Energy Aspects estimated US shipments at around 70,000 bpd, still the highest level since 2019.

HOW INDIA HAS FUEL TO SELL AMID THE DISRUPTION

India imports most of its crude oil but has one of the world's largest refining capacities. That allows Indian refiners to buy crude from the international market, process it into higher-value products such as diesel and petrol, and export those products to markets where prices and shortages make shipments commercially attractive.

This has become particularly important since the disruption to Russian and Middle Eastern refining and supply chains.

India's petroleum exports have already staged a sharp recovery. According to Crisil Intelligence, India's petroleum exports grew 46% year-on-year between April and August 2026, while overall merchandise exports rose 18.8% and non-oil exports grew 14.4%. Crisil said the increase marks a reversal after three consecutive years of decline in petroleum exports.

The reason for this surge is simple. Supply disruptions elsewhere have created new markets for Indian refined products.

INDIA'S RUSSIAN OIL CONNECTION

There is an important Russian layer to India's growing role in refined products export.

Since 2022, Indian refiners have significantly increased their purchases of Russian crude. That crude is processed in Indian refineries and the resulting products enter international markets.

India's Russian crude purchases have surged again in recent months. Indian imports from Russia stand at 2.73 million bpd in June and an estimated 2.57 million bpd in July, among the strongest monthly levels recorded, Kpler data revealed.

This has created a situation in which India can simultaneously be a major buyer of Russian crude and a major exporter of refined petroleum products.

A barrel of crude bought by an Indian refinery is not the same product as the diesel eventually sold to another country. Once crude is refined, the resulting diesel becomes a globally traded petroleum product, with its destination determined by commercial demand, pricing, freight costs and availability.

So, as Russian diesel supplies to Turkey shrink, Indian refiners have become an important source of replacement fuel.

COULD AMERICA'S RUSSIA SANCTIONS ALSO BE A FACTOR?

There is a geopolitical element to the changing trade pattern as well.

The Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, signed into US law last week (September 18), gives the US president authority to impose targeted tariffs of up to 100% on goods from certain countries importing Russian-origin crude or natural gas, among other measures. The law is aimed at increasing economic pressure on Russia and Iran.

India is among the major buyers of Russian crude and has said it is examining the implications of the legislation. Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India would assess the law's impact on its trade and economic interests.

Turkey, meanwhile, has an additional reason to diversify. Its traditional Russian supply has become less reliable at precisely the time when the global diesel market has tightened.

Turkey needs diesel. Russia's supply has fallen. Middle Eastern supplies are constrained. The US and India have barrels available. And Indian refiners, sitting at the intersection of Russian crude flows and global refined-product markets, are increasingly positioned to supply whoever is willing to buy.

The August spike suggests that Turkey is scrambling to replace disrupted Russian diesel, while India is using its refining capacity to become an increasingly important supplier in a fragmented global fuel market.

The political irony of that trade might be striking. The commercial logic behind it is much simple. When the usual barrels disappear, the market searches for new ones.

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