AUD/USD Price Forecast: Climbs to 0.6685 area amid modest USD weakness, ahead of US data

• AUD/USD rebounds around 50 pips from a nearly two-month low touched this Wednesday.
• The technical setup warrants caution before confirming a near-term bottom for the major.
• Traders now look forward to important US macro releases to grab short-term opportunities.

The AUD/USD pair stages a goodish intraday recovery from its lowest level since August 8, around the 0.6535 region touched earlier this Wednesday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak. Spot prices climb to a fresh daily high, around the 0.6685 area during the first half of the European session a modest US Dollar (USD) slide, though any meaningful appreciating move still seems elusive. 

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, extends the overnight pullback from a three-month peak amid a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields. Meanwhile, the latest Australian consumer inflation figures released today dashed hopes for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) before the year-end. This, in turn, underpins the Australian Dollar (AUD) and contributes to the AUD/USD pair's intraday bounce.

That said, firming expectations for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), along with a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, should act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and cap the risk-sensitive Aussie. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of important US macro releases. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that any subsequent recovery beyond the 0.6600 mark might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 0.6630 area, or the 200-day SMA breakpoint. 

The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively could trigger a fresh bout of a short-covering rally and lift the AUD/USD pair to the 0.6675 intermediate hurdle en route to the 0.6700 round figure.

On the flip side, the daily swing low, around the 0.6535 area could offer some support ahead of the 0.6500 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling should pave the way for a further depreciating move towards the 0.6440-0.6435 support zone. The AUD/USD pair could eventually drop to the 0.6400 round figure and the next relevant support near the 0.6370 region.

AUD/USD daily chart

Australian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

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