EUR/USD struggles near 1.1000 as Fed smaller rate cut bets keep downside intact

08 Oct 2024, 09:31 by Sagar Dua · FXStreet

EUR/USD recovers mildly while the US Dollar’s rally stalls as the US CPI comes under the spotlight.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in November.
A majority of ECB policymakers are open to more rate cuts.

EUR/USD recovers slightly to near the psychological resistance of 1.1000 in Tuesday’s North American session. The major currency pair edges higher as the US Dollar struggles to extend its upside move, with investors shifting focus to the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be published on Thursday.

The inflation data is expected to show that the annual core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – has grown at a steady pace of 3.2% year-over-year (YoY). The headline inflation is estimated to have decelerated to 2.3% YoY from 2.5% in August.

The impact of the inflation data is expected to be lower on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook as policymakers are more focused on reviving economic growth and consumer spending. The comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in Tuesday’s European session suggested that the policymaker sees more rate cuts as appropriate if price pressures continue to decline as expected.

However, the outlook of the US Dollar remains firm as financial market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates again in November, but the rate-cut size is expected to be 25 basis points (bps), according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lately, market speculation for a Fed 50 bps rate cut waned after the US job report for September, which showed that labor demand remained robust and wage growth was stronger than expected.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains as US Dollar edges lower

EUR/USD edges higher as the US Dollar's rally (USD) appears to have stalled on Tuesday. The outlook of the Euro (EUR) remains fragile as a majority of European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to emphasize the need to reduce interest rates further due to a sharp deceleration in Eurozone price pressures and poor economic growth.
In an interview with Table Media, ECB policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said, "I am certainly open to considering whether we could possibly make another interest rate cut.” Nagel has also agreed with the revision of the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for 2024 to a 0.2% contraction against a prior projection of 0.3% growth.
However, the German Industrial Production for August has come in better than expected. On a monthly basis, Industrial Production grew at a robust pace of 2.9%, compared to estimates of 0.8% after contracting by 2.4% in July.
Meanwhile, ECB policymaker and Austrian central bank Governor Robert Holzmann advised to proceed with caution on further interest rate cuts as inflation has yet not been defeated, in his comments while interviewing with Sueddeutsche Zeitung published on Monday. In September, the Eurozone flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decelerated to 1.8% year-on-year.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD stays below 20- and 50-day EMAs

EUR/USD gathers strength to gain ground near the immediate support of 1.0950. The major currency pair is broadly under pressure as it has delivered a breakdown of a Double Top chart pattern formation on a daily timeframe. The above-mentioned chart pattern was triggered after the shared currency pair broke below the September 11 low of 1.1000.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00. A bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI sustains below the same.

Looking down, the pair is expected to find support near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.0900. On the upside, the 20-day EMA at 1.1070 and the September high around 1.1200 will be major resistance zones.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

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