AUD/JPY falls to near 98.50 following Ishiba winning the LDP presidential election

• AUD/JPY loses ground as Shigeru Ishiba has won the leadership race to become Japan’s prime minister.
• The Tokyo Consumer Price Index rose 2.2% YoY in September, down from a 2.6% increase in August.
• Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers views China's new stimulus measures as a "really welcome development."

AUD/JPY breaks its winning streak that began on September 16, trading around 98.60 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains ground as former Defense Chief Shigeru Ishiba won the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) presidential election to become Japan's prime minister. However, the JPY received downward pressure due to the rising concerns over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rates outlook.

On Friday, The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.2% year-over-year in September, down from a 2.6% rise in August. Meanwhile, the CPI excluding fresh food and energy climbed 1.6% YoY in September, unchanged from the previous reading. The CPI excluding fresh food increased 2.0% as expected, compared to the previous rise of 2.4%.

The AUD/JPY cross may receive upward support following the news of further stimulus from China, its largest trading partner, along with the dovish Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook, which lifted market sentiment for riskier currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers is currently in China to strengthen economic ties between the two nations. During his visit, Chalmers held candid and productive discussions with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). He highlighted China's economic slowdown as a key factor in weaker global growth while welcoming the country's new stimulus measures as a "really welcome development."

Interest rates FAQs

What are interest rates?

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

How do interest rates impact currencies?

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

How do interest rates influence the price of Gold?

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

What is the Fed Funds rate?

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

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