Greece Set to Shed Title of Eurozone's Most Indebted Nation as Italy Takes Top Spot

Greece is on course to relinquish its long-held position as the eurozone's most heavily indebted country this year, with Italy projected to overtake it as debt trajectories in the two economies diverge sharply, senior Greek officials have told Reuters.

Greek public debt is forecast to fall to around 137 percent of GDP in 2026, down from 145 percent in 2025 — a reduction of eight percentage points in a single year. 

Italy's debt, by contrast, is expected to rise from 137.1 percent to 138.6 percent over the same period, according to Rome's latest multi-year budget plan.

"Greece will not be the most indebted country in the euro zone — from this year," one Greek official said.

The updated figures will be included in Greece's fiscal plan due to be submitted to the European Commission later this month.

The milestone marks a striking reversal for a country that spent the better part of a decade as the symbol of European fiscal dysfunction, requiring three international bailouts totaling approximately €280 billion. 

Since 2020, Greece has reduced its debt ratio by more than 45 percentage points — compared with roughly 17 percentage points for Italy over the same period.

Italy's debt is projected to stabilize after 2026, edging down slightly to 138.5 percent in 2027 before declining more steadily to 136.3 percent by 2029, according to its budget framework.

Greece is also planning to repay approximately €7 billion in first-bailout loans ahead of schedule later this year, a move that would further accelerate the improvement in its debt profile and reinforce the case for a credit rating upgrade at S&P's next review in October.

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