Can A Strong El Nino Be Followed By La Nina? What Happens To Global Weather Next

El Nino and La Nina alternate as part of the ENSO cycle, but not according to a fixed or predictable schedule.

30 Oct 2026, 12:01 · NDTV

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El Nino is causing global weather anomalies with effects lasting until February 2027
La Nina is a cooling phase that can follow El Nino but does not always occur automatically
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of the ENSO climate pattern occurring every 3-7 years

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El Nino is dominating the climate conversations across the world. From increased temperature to storms and heavy rainfall, the natural phenomenon has caused bizarre weather anomalies. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that El Nino's peak is yet to come and its effects will continue till February 2027. But what happens when El Nino begins to weaken? In some cases, the Pacific Ocean undergoes a remarkable reversal, shifting from unusually warm to unusually cool conditions and triggering La Nina. The transition is not automatic, but when it happens, it can reshape weather patterns across continents.

READ | El Nino Could Hit India Hard, New Tracker Predicts 55,000 Deaths By March

What Are El Nino And La Nina?

These are the opposite phases of a natural climate pattern that occurs every 3-7 years. Together, they are called ENSO, short for El Nini-Southern Oscillation, according to US agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

El Nino, when translated from native Spanish to English, means "little boy". La Nina, meanwhile, means "little girl".

While both the weather phenomena originate in the Pacific Ocean, their impact is felt across the world, resulting in a wide range of changes to global weather. A change in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean, for instance, can influence rainfall in India, droughts in Africa and storms across other parts of the world.

Since this year's El Nino is the strongest in decades, scientists are watching closely what happens next.

How Do El Nino And La Nina Affect Weather Patterns?

A representation of the El Nino pattern.
Photo Credit: NOAA

During El Nino, which is commonly called the warm phase, the usual easterly trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm surface water to move eastward across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

READ | From Tokyo's Record Rain To Chile's Desert Bloom: El Nino At Work

Its cool counterpart La Nina is characterised by stronger-than-normal trade winds that push warm water far to the western Pacific near Asia and Australia, while cold, nutrient-rich water surges up along the coast of South America.

Do El Nino And La Nina Alternate?

A representation of the La Nina pattern.
Photo Credit: NOAA

They do as part of the ENSO cycle, but not according to a strict or predictable schedule. While they often alternate, the climate system can occasionally experience the same phase consecutively (such as back-to-back La Nina years).

Generally, El Nino episodes happen more frequently than La Nina events.

According to WMO forecast, a weak La Nina that developed in late 2025 quickly faded in early 2026. By mid-2026, conditions completely reversed into an aggressive El Nino.

NOAA meteorologist Nathaniel Johnson, in his October 2026 experimental forecast, said the current El Nino could transition towards ENSO-neutral conditions during the spring or early summer of 2027. However, the forecast also highlights considerable uncertainty as the prediction period extends further into the future.

This means that a subsequent La Nina remains a possibility, not an established forecast. Scientists will need to monitor how the Pacific evolves when the current El Nino weakens.

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