UP scientist on Super El Niño: Prepare for heavy rains, too

MANILA, Philippines — A University of the Philippines scientist urged the public to prepare not only for drier conditions expected during a Very Strong El Niño, but also for possible episodes of heavy rain.

Rafaela Jane Delfino of the UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology said the public cannot control when El Niño and La Niña occur or how intense they become, but can take steps to reduce their impacts.

"So naturally occurring itong El Niño and La Niña, and essentially parang hindi natin mako-control kung kailan siya bumabalik, kung gaano siya kalakas. Ang kaya lang natin sigurong maikontrol is kung paano natin mababawasan 'yung impact niya," Delfino said in a video from the University of the Philippines on Thursday, October 1.

("El Niño and La Niña are naturally occurring, and essentially, we cannot control when they return or how strong they become. What we can control is how we reduce their impacts.")

PAGASA said a Strong El Niño is already active in the tropical Pacific and is expected to intensify into a Very Strong El Niño between September and December 2026, then persist through the first half of 2027.

Climate Change Commissioner Albert Dela Cruz has described the developing event as potentially the most severe the Philippines may experience on record.

Heavy rains still possible

While El Niño generally increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, dry spells, droughts and water supply stress in parts of the Philippines, it does not mean rain and storms will disappear.

PAGASA's September 23 climate advisory said above-normal rainfall may still occur over the western parts of the country due to the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones even as generally drier conditions prevail elsewhere.

The Climate Change Commission has likewise warned that intense tropical cyclones, including those reaching super typhoon strength, may still occur during El Niño conditions.

"Maaaring umabot sa kategoryang super typhoon ang mga bagyong ito at magdulot ng malawakang pagbaha," the agency warned. ("These cyclones could reach super typhoon strength and cause widespread flooding.")

Warmer Pacific

Delfino explained that El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Under normal conditions, easterly trade winds push warm surface water toward the western Pacific. During El Niño, these winds weaken, allowing unusually warm water to spread eastward across the tropical Pacific.

For the Philippines, this shift generally favors drier-than-normal conditions. PAGASA likewise defines El Niño as the abnormal warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by cooler-than-average waters over the Philippine Sea.

"Kaya inaasahan natin, during El Niño conditions, relatively drier sa Pilipinas," Delfino said. ("That is why we expect relatively drier conditions in the Philippines during El Niño.")

Delfino said scientists monitor sea surface temperature anomalies, among other indicators, to characterize the strength of an El Niño event.

She noted that current anomalies in parts of the monitored Pacific are already more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, a level associated by some scientists with the informal term "Super El Niño."

"Papunta pa lang tayo sa peak. Developing pa lang siya. So kaya siya tinatawag na Super El Niño kasi literally, off the charts," Delfino said. ("We are still heading toward the peak. It is still developing. That is why it is being called a Super El Niño because it is literally off the charts.")

PAGASA, however, officially uses the classification "Very Strong El Niño" and expects the phenomenon to peak toward the end of 2026.

Preparing for both extremes

Delfino said reducing El Niño's impacts begins with understanding the hazards it may bring and preparing accordingly.

For agriculture, she suggested establishing rainwater harvesting systems, particularly in rain-fed areas, and planting drought-tolerant crops.

Water management preparations could include early planning for dam operations and reducing household water consumption.

But preparations should not focus exclusively on drought.

"Pero huwag din nating kalimutan na kailangan pa rin nating maghanda sa malalakas na ulan," Delfino said. ("But let us not forget that we still need to prepare for heavy rains.")