Super El Nino 2026: Why forecasters say it’s just around the corner

The world is watching for El Nino to arrive in the coming months. According to a recent update issued by the National Weather Service on Thursday, there is an 82% chance that the climate pattern will emerge at some point between May and July. 

As time passes, the probability of a strengthening EI Nino becomes even higher.

Advertisement

In this regard, National forecasters say there’s a 96% chance of El Nino persisting through the winter. It is pertinent to note that the phenomenon commonly reaches peak strength. 

Furthermore, the likelihood of witnessing a super EI Nino in 2026 has grown since last month’s forecast. 

There is now a 35% probability that the EI Nino will occur late this year and will become “very strong” late this year, and about a 20% chance it will remain “moderate.”

The intensity of EI Nino is determined by sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator.

The Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday: “Stronger EI Nino events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely.”

We are already seeing the signature impacts of EI Nino, including warm, dry winter weather across the northern half of the country. 

In addition, a strong EI Nino could mean a calmer hurricane season in the Atlantic, and a stronger tropical storm season in the Pacific.