Why Saidu Aliyu Mohammed’s appointment is a defining regulatory trust test for NMDPRA

If downstream regulation loses trust, Nigeria does not merely face higher prices. It faces a deeper hazard: market capture; where influence replaces rules

Nigeria is standing at a fork in the road in its downstream petroleum sector. One path leads to a competitive market; multiple refiners, transparent rules, predictable pricing signals, and lower long-term risk.

The other path looks efficient in the short term but is dangerous in the long run: a market where one dominant player becomes so large that regulation quietly bends around it.

The nomination and swift confirmation of Saidu Aliyu Mohammed, an engineer as CEO of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) arrives at precisely this sensitive moment; after a public dispute between the regulator’s outgoing leadership and Aliko Dangote over market rules, imports, and credibility.

In that environment, the key issue is not competence on paper. It is regulatory independence and the public’s ability to see it.

If downstream regulation loses trust, Nigeria does not merely face higher prices. It faces a deeper hazard: market capture; where influence replaces rules and the “referee” is perceived to be wearing one team’s jersey.

THE REAL DANGER: WHEN DOMINANCE BECOMES CONTROL

NMDPRA is not an ordinary agency. It is the umpire for licensing, quality standards, pricing frameworks, supply discipline, and competitive fairness. These issues directly shape inflation in Nigeria, transport costs, food prices, and business survival.

In a market where one player has extraordinary scale, capital, and political reach, small regulatory “tilts” become massive economic outcomes.

A slight preference in licensing speed, product rule interpretation, access conditions, compliance enforcement or import policy signals can quietly shift the entire playing field and once the market senses that the biggest actor is “too important to challenge,” competition dies without a formal announcement.

This is how monopolies are born: not always through a single law, but through a thousand small decisions that cumulatively make everyone else unviable.

WHY THIS APPOINTMENT TRIGGERS A REGULATORY-TRUST ALARM

When a leadership change follows immediately after a high-profile clash between a regulator and the most powerful downstream investor, the reputational risk is obvious: Nigerians may reasonably suspect a move from neutral oversight to managed outcomes.

That suspicion becomes more severe if there are any recent advisory, consulting, or commercial ties (real or perceived) between the incoming CEO of NMDPRA and any entity with major interests before the authority.

Even the appearance of closeness matters, because the downstream market runs on confidence. If investors and operators believe the referee is aligned with the dominant team, they stop competing on efficiency and start competing on access. This makes the results predictable: smaller refiners and marketers reduce investment or exit, new entrants pause or cancel projects, innovation slows because outcomes are no longer merit-based, consumers lose choice and pricing power concentrates on one entity.

This evolving model could make Nigeria easily move from a “scarcity crisis” to “single-supplier dependency.”

Nigeria has suffered enough from dependency. It cannot afford to replace foreign dependency with domestic dependency.

A SECOND RED FLAG: PROXIMITY TO REGULATED ENTITIES

Recent reporting has linked Engr. Mohammed to an incoming non-executive board role in a regulated-sector company effective 1 January 2026. Even where lawful, near-term board affiliations with sector participants can inflame conflict-of-interest concerns unless the public sees clear actions: resignation where necessary, cooling-off compliance and a documented recusal regime.

The standard here should be simple: no grey zones in a sector this politically charged and economically consequential.

THE “SYSTEM CONTINUITY” QUESTION NIGERIA MUST ASK

Nigeria’s downstream story has been a long cycle of broken promises: failed crude oil refineries, supply shocks, unstable rules and expensive workarounds. This is not a personal indictment of any one official but it is a legitimate national question:

Does this appointment represent a clean break from old habits or continuity dressed as reform?

A regulator trying to rebuild legitimacy must be more than technically experienced. It must be structurally independent, publicly accountable and visibly willing to enforce rules against the biggest players not only the weakest.

If the regulator cannot credibly regulate the dominant actor, then Nigeria has not built a market. It has built a hierarchy.

THE NEXT 90 DAYS: A PASS/FAIL TEST FOR ANTI-MONOPOLY CREDIBILITY

If government intends this appointment to restore trust and prevent monopoly risk, the next steps must be non-negotiable, immediate, and public:

1. FULL TRANSPARENCY DECLARATION

Publish a clear disclosure of recent engagements, advisory roles and beneficial interests linked to major regulated entities across refining, trading, shipping, depots, and retail.

2. A BINDING RECUSAL AND ETHICS FRAMEWORK

State (publicly) what decisions the NMDPRA CEO will not participate in and which internal controls will manage those files.

3. COMPETITION-FIRST REGULATION COMMITMENTS

Announce measurable enforcement priorities: non-discriminatory licensing, transparent product standards enforcement, predictable market rules, and zero preferential treatment (regardless of size)

4. A PUBLIC PERFORMANCE SCORECARD

Quarterly reporting on licensing timelines, compliance actions, product quality enforcement, and supply stability – an individual’s discretion must shrink so that confidence can grow.

These recommendations are not public relations gestures. They are the minimum governance controls that stop dominance from hardening into control.

THE URGENCY: NIGERIA MUST ACT BEFORE THE MARKET HARDENS

Monopolies are easiest to prevent at the start and hardest to reverse once the ecosystem has adjusted around them.

Once competitors shut down, once investors walk away, once supply chains become single-threaded, the country loses leverage. At that point, Nigerians will not be negotiating prices in a competitive market; they will be pleading for mercy in a controlled one.

This appointment, therefore, is not merely administrative. It is a referendum on whether Nigeria’s downstream future will be governed by rules or by weight.

The fastest way to de-escalate suspicion is not rhetoric. It is radical transparency, enforceable safeguards, and visible even-handed enforcement.

Nigeria does not need a downstream sector that simply works,Nigeria needs a downstream sector that works without fear, without favor, and without one player becoming the market itself.

Babajide Ogunsanwo, Multiple Award-Winning Data and Information Analyst writes from Lagos, Nigeria