Fashion Footwear Shift Is a Multi-year Cycle, Analysis Shows

by · WWD
Polished, dressy footwear is set to drive the shoe market for several years.Kristina Bumphrey/Variety

The expanding footwear focus on dress shoes is part of a multi-year fashion cycle, according to a report from Jefferies fashion brands and platform analyst Blake Anderson.

Anderson hosted a call Tuesday with experts from Euromonitor — Jitong Li, consultant, North America, fashion, and Marguerite LeRolland, global insight manager, fashion — focusing on the footwear sector.

A key takeaway from the call was that the “athleisure era is fading and footwear is gradually shifting toward a more polished, dressed-up look,” Anderson wrote in his report. He noted that the 2016 to 2021 athleisure boom saw value and mall footwear shrink. For the 2021 to 2026 years, the focus was led by sneaker, comfort and casual work demand as dress and fashion declined. In addition, sports is now 58 percent of U.S. footwear sales, versus 50 percent in 2021.

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The athletic-to-fashion rotation is expected to be a gradual one that will play out over several years, with footwear expected to lead the change and apparel following more slowly. In fact, the Euromonitor experts said that footwear shifts should drive broader fashion changes. Athletic casual — hoodies, leggings and chunky running sneakers — peaked between 2021 to 2024, while the bridge period — track jacket, wide-leg trousers and a low-profile sport shoe — occurred in 2025. The rising trend in 2026 is polished casual, such as a blazer over a tee, pleated trousers and loafers or ballet flats.

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One other indication for the shift away from athleisure is the current strength in denim, the Jefferies analyst said.

In addition, he said dressy apparel searches are up 4 percent versus athleisure, which is down 8 percent. The technical brand Arc’teryx saw searches increase 30 percent, outgrowing total apparel that was up 3.6 percent, while athleisure brands such as Lululemon and Athleta saw searches fall between 8 percent and 11 percent.

Another point from the Euromonitor call was that ballet flats lead a silhouette shift, making it a strong example of the new “go-to” versatile shoe, along with mary janes. Consumers are gravitating toward lighter, lower-priced styles that can work for multiple occasions, with boots becoming a more selective purchase and Western boots possibly also slowing as cowboy boot searches are down 8 percent from prior years.

In fact, when Steven Madden Ltd. last Thursday reported third quarter earnings for the period ended Sept. 30, chief executive officer Edward R. Rosenfeld noted during the firm’s conference call that while the flagship Steve Madden brand saw strong performance in booties and heels, it also saw a decline in the sales of tall shaft boots.

One other key point was that the global footwear market at $417 billion is forecasted to grow 5.4 percent in 2026. U.S. footwear is about a $95 billion market, or one-fifth of the $457 billion U.S. apparel and footwear market. U.S. sports footwear is expected to continue to outperform through 2030 based on continued consumer focus on health, wellness and lifestyle.

Anderson’s recap of the call noted share shifts by sneaker brands, with Hoka and On reaching scale and slowing growth rates in 2026. That’s also due to brands such as Asics accelerating to 15 percent growth in 2026 and legacy lifestyle sneakers in reset mode.

And as footwear shifts toward fashion, another takeaway from the Euromonitor call is the opportunity for legacy players to win by refreshing their styles, with more leading players to layer fashion into legacy sport styles,” Anderson said, adding that “we’d also put Vans in this bucket from our [sector] coverage as they innovate classic silhouettes.”