South Korea's October exports seen rising at fastest pace since 1974: Reuters poll
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SEOUL, Oct 29 : South Korea's export growth likely accelerated to its fastest pace in more than 50 years in October, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, driven by robust demand for AI investment-related semiconductors and higher memory chip prices.
Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were forecast to have risen 93.2 per cent this month from a year earlier, up from an 83.7 per cent increase in September, the median estimate of nine economists surveyed by Reuters showed.
If realised, it would mark a 17th straight month of export growth and the strongest increase since January 1974. South Korea's exports exceeded $800 billion in the first nine months of the year, already surpassing last year's full-year record.
The AI-driven chip boom has continued to fuel the economy. South Korea's gross domestic product grew 1.0 per cent in the third quarter, beating expectations, while chip manufacturer SK Hynix reported a more than seven-fold jump in quarterly profit.
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Economists attributed the export growth to robust semiconductor demand tied to AI investment and firmer memory chip prices, but cautioned that calendar effects played a significant role.
October had 22 working days compared with 20 a year earlier, owing to differences in the timing of Chuseok holidays, which often distort South Korea's trade data in September and October.
"The likely sharp increases in exports and imports mainly reflect calendar effects and favourable base comparisons rather than a comparable acceleration in underlying trade activity," said Park Chong-hoon, an economist at Standard Chartered.
Stephen Lee, an analyst at Meritz Securities, said exports were driven by semiconductors and computers on AI investment demand, while growth momentum was also broadening to other sectors such as cars and wireless communication devices.
"Higher volumes, not just higher export prices, are clearly contributing to GDP growth," Lee said.
Imports were forecast to have risen 39.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, accelerating from a 26.0 per cent gain in September and marking the strongest increase since November 2021.
The monthly trade surplus was forecast at a median $37.24 billion, down from September's $49.97 billion surplus.
South Korea is scheduled to report October trade figures on Sunday, November 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
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