Japan core inflation seen below BOJ target for fourth month in May: Reuters poll

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TOKYO, June 12 : Japan's core consumer inflation likely held steady in May at roughly the previous month's pace due to end of government fuel subsidies, leaving inflation below the Bank of Japan's 2 per cent target for a fourth month, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Here are a few details: 

• The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which includes energy items but excludes fresh food prices, is expected to have risen 1.4 per cent in May from a year earlier, according to a poll of 16 economists, unchanged from April when it marked the slowest increase since March 2022.

• "Although the rate of increase in food prices excluding fresh food is continuing to moderate, the pace of decline in energy prices has narrowed due to the situation in Iran, so the year-on-year rate is likely to remain unchanged from the previous month," said Keisuke Kobayashi, analyst at MUFG Research & Consulting.

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• Analysts, however, ‌expect surging fuel costs from the Middle East war to accelerate price growth in coming months. The government earlier this month finalised a $19 billion supplementary budget for this fiscal year to cushion the impact of rising energy costs on households.

• The Bank of Japan will hold a two-day policy meeting ending next Tuesday. It is set to raise interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.00 per cent and signal its readiness to keep pushing up borrowing costs, undeterred by the absence of its governor as it focuses on countering inflation risks from the Middle East war.

• Japan's wholesale prices rose 6.3 per cent in May from a year earlier, accelerating at the fastest pace in three years, as firms continued to pass on rising costs from the U.S.-Iran war-induced energy shock.

• The internal affairs ministry will announce CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on Friday, June 19 (2330 GMT on June 18).

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