With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, alternative routes pose little help
· Yahoo NewsThe effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has choked global oil supply. Two key alternatives remain, though any disruption to them could make moving oil out of the Arabian Peninsula "virtually impossible," an analyst said, amid concerns over Iran's targeting of Gulf countries' energy infrastructure.
On a typical day, a significant share of oil exports from the Arabian Peninsula depends on just a handful of critical routes and terminals -- making the system highly vulnerable to disruption, according to Matt Smith, the lead oil analyst at energy consultant group Kpler.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast, normally handles about 20% of global oil consumption. In 2024, roughly 20 million barrels per day passed through it, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Since Iran attacked several oil tankers following the start of the war in late February, nearly all shipping traffic through the strait has halted, disrupting global oil markets.
Two of the most important alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz are Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which terminates at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the United Arab Emirates' ADCOP pipeline, which feeds the export terminal at Fujairah, according to Kpler.
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At Yanbu, exports have historically averaged around 750,000 barrels per day of crude oil. In recent weeks, however, volumes have surged, according to Kpler.
"It is up to 2.5 million [barrels per day] so far this month, and based on vessels heading there, should climb materially higher than that," Smith said.
Oil and gas prices surge as Iran escalates strikes on Gulf refineries
Meanwhile, the Fujairah terminal typically handles about 1 million barrels per day of crude exports via the ADCOP pipeline. That figure recently spiked to 2.25 million barrels per day before dropping sharply following reported drone strikes in the region, Smith said.
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If both Yanbu and Fujairah were compromised, moving oil out of the Arabian Peninsula would become "virtually impossible," according to Smith.
There are only a few limited exceptions: Iran can still export crude through the Strait of Hormuz and from its Jask terminal, located just outside the Strait of Hormuz; and Northern Iraq can move oil via a pipeline from Kirkuk to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, per Kpler.
Oil experts convey a bottom line: beyond those routes, there are no meaningful alternatives — there is no equitable backup plan to the Strait of Hormuz; these alternatives are the limited options left.
Why are your gas prices rising if the US barely imports any oil from the Strait of Hormuz?
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Liquefied natural gas presents an even greater vulnerability -- there are effectively "no alternative" export routes outside of the Strait of Hormuz, Smith said.
One of the world's largest liquefied natural gas hubs is in Qatar. The facility, Ras Laffan, was damaged in Iranian strikes this week that reduced Qatar's liquefied natural gas export capacity by 17% and will take up to five years to repair, QatarEnergy's CEO said Thursday.
The Qatari Foreign Ministry condemned the attack, calling it a "dangerous escalation."
Ras Laffan was among several energy assets identified by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps this week as "legitimate" targets after Israel hit Iran's largest gas field.
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The list of IRGC targets includes key oil, refining, and natural gas infrastructure across the region -- including export routes that handle millions of barrels per day.
ABC News' Meredith Deliso contributed to this report.